M2RB: R.E.M.
If you're on your own in this life
The days and nights are long
When you think you've had too much of this life to hang on
Well, everybody hurts sometimes
Everybody cries
Everybody hurts sometimes
And everybody hurts sometimes
So hold on, hold on
Hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on
Everybody hurts
The days and nights are long
When you think you've had too much of this life to hang on
Well, everybody hurts sometimes
Everybody cries
Everybody hurts sometimes
And everybody hurts sometimes
So hold on, hold on
Hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on
Everybody hurts
A homeless woman sits near Monastiraki Square in downtown Athens |
"The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime."
- Sir Edward Grey, 1st Viscount Grey of Fallodon, 3 August 1914
By
Mitch Feierstein
Those financial forecasters, like
myself, who take a generally dark view of world affairs are known by a
number of monikers: prophets of doom, killjoys, pessimists, Cassandras.
And that last one is interesting.
Cassandra,
in ancient Greek myth, was the daughter of King Priam of Troy. After
Helen, she was considered the most beautiful woman on earth. Curly red
hair, blue eyes, fair skin. (I know: she sounds more Irish than Turkish,
but work with me.) Because of her beauty, the god Apollo fell in love
with her and gave her the gift of prophecy. When she did not return his
love – always a dangerous game when dating a god – he cursed her,
ensuring no one would ever believe her prophecies.
But
Cassandra saw it all coming: the Trojan war, the Trojan horse, the fall
of the city and the slaughter of its citizens. She explained clearly
and repeatedly what was happening. And no one believed her. Even after
her early forecasts had proved to be bang on the money, still no one
believed her. Even as the Trojan horse, bursting at the joins with Greek
soldiers, trundled up to the gates of Troy, no one believed her.
Greece: We can't see the 10-year depression just yet - but that doesn't mean it's not coming
So Cassandra feels like a good term
to apply to people like me. (I’ve never been wooed by a goddess and
cruel observers might suggest I’m very slightly past my physical peak,
but I’m trying to focus on the prophesy side of things here. Work with
me, folks.)
I’ve said
for ages that the euro will fail, that the countries of the
Mediterranean are bankrupt, that Germany doesn’t have the resources to
fill the void, and that the Western world is entering not a recession,
but a depression: a huge, 10-year, economic slump.
And
here we are. If you look outside the city gates right now, I think
you’ll find a giant wooden horse with a trapdoor in its belly. Because
I’m a Cassandra, you won’t believe me of course, but I’ll give it a try
anyway. That’s what I’m fated to do.
Call me a prophet of doom if you want, but Europe's meltdown isn't a recession - it's a coming depression.
So number one, the interest rates on Spanish government debt are now heading up towards 8%. If you want to borrow money from the bank, you can likely do it cheaper than that. You personally may have a better credit rating than the Spanish government right now. In any case, a government can’t pay those punitive rates when its debt is gaping, its deficit out of control, and its economy in recession.
There’s
muttering about a €300 billion bailout, which would keep Spain away from
the financial markets for three years, but so what? For reasons I’m
about to come to, I don’t think such a bailout could possibly happen,
but even if it did, so what? Spain’s problem is too much debt piled onto
a creaky economy. That €300 billion ‘bailout’ wouldn’t be a gift, it
would be a loan. The solution to too much debt is not more debt. (And,
for that matter, Mr King, the solution to weak money is not to print an
endless supply of the stuff.) Naturally a giant bailout would kick the
problem down the road, but bankruptcy is bankruptcy no matter when you
meet it.
That’s point
one. Point two is that Germany (and creditworthy northern Europe in
general) is coming to the end of its borrowing capacity. There’s no
reason at all why the German government should fail to meet its
obligations, but it can’t be the Atlas that shoulders all the burdens of
its southern neighbours too.
The
ratings agencies have noticed this. Germany is now on credit watch for
possible downgrade. If Germany commits to a monster bailout of Spain
(not directly, of course, but via some Euro acronym), that downgrade
would happen faster than Helmut Kohl could guzzle a schnitzel. Because
Germany knows this, and because its citizens know it, those German purse
strings are going to be drawn ever tighter as eurozone discussions
progress. And quite right too. Germans have worked hard to restrain wage
costs, export goods, innovate new products, and boost productivity.
There’s no reason on earth why the fruit of those efforts should be
handed out to economies which have steered a very different course.
Germany is now on credit watch for a possible downgrade. No wonder Angela Merkel is showing the strain
Point three: the terrible data,
released today, about the British recession. I said we were in recession
back in autumn last year. (No one believed me but, hey, I’m used to
it.) And now we find that we’ve actually had three successive quarters
of recession, with the last quarter the worse of the lot. Even if things
turn up – and, pardon me for asking, but do you see any grounds for
optimism right now? – we’ve still experienced the worst recession in
British economic history. Not a bit worse than the Great Depression but,
by now, very significantly worse.
Like
I say, I’ve been saying all this for a while. Me and Cassandra both.
The Greeks are coming. There’s going to be war. It’ll last for ten
years. That wooden horse looks mighty iffy to me.
And
no one listens. Maybe it’s nothing to do with being cursed by a God.
Maybe it’s just the way with people who tell the truths that people
don’t want to hear. But we Cassandras just go on prophesying anyway.
There’s a big storm coming and it’s about to strike.
Mitch Feierstein is CEO of Glacier Environmental Fund and author of Planet Ponzi: How bankers and politicians stole your future
Everybody Hurts - R.E.M.
When your day is long
And the night, the night is yours alone
When you're sure you've had enough
Of this life, well hang on
Don't let yourself go
'Cause everybody cries
And everybody hurts sometimes
Sometimes everything is wrong
Now it's time to sing along
When your day is night alone (Hold on, hold on)
If you feel like letting go (Hold on)
If you think you've had too much
Of this life, well hang on
Everybody hurts
Take comfort in your friends
Everybody hurts
Don't throw your hand, oh no
Don't throw your hand
If you feel like you're alone
No, no, no, you are not alone
If you're on your own in this life
The days and nights are long
When you think you've had too much of this life to hang on
Well, everybody hurts sometimes
Everybody cries
Everybody hurts sometimes
And everybody hurts sometimes
So hold on, hold on
Hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on
Everybody hurts
And the night, the night is yours alone
When you're sure you've had enough
Of this life, well hang on
Don't let yourself go
'Cause everybody cries
And everybody hurts sometimes
Sometimes everything is wrong
Now it's time to sing along
When your day is night alone (Hold on, hold on)
If you feel like letting go (Hold on)
If you think you've had too much
Of this life, well hang on
Everybody hurts
Take comfort in your friends
Everybody hurts
Don't throw your hand, oh no
Don't throw your hand
If you feel like you're alone
No, no, no, you are not alone
If you're on your own in this life
The days and nights are long
When you think you've had too much of this life to hang on
Well, everybody hurts sometimes
Everybody cries
Everybody hurts sometimes
And everybody hurts sometimes
So hold on, hold on
Hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on
Everybody hurts
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