Gonna set this town a flame
That’s right
Well, Detroit city’s just the place to be
Murder town’s gonna set you free tonight
Oh, no, ow!
By George F. Will
With Americans, on average, worth
less and earning less than when he was inaugurated, Barack Obama is
requesting a second term by promising, or perhaps threatening, that
prosperity is just around the corner if he can practice four more years
of trickle-down government.
This is dubious policy, scattering borrowed money in the hope
that this will fill consumers and investors with confidence. But
recently Obama revealed remarkable ambitions for itwhen speaking in Pueblo, Colo., a pleasant place Democratic presidents should avoid.After delivering in Pueblo what would be his last extended
speech, Woodrow Wilson suffered a collapse that prefaced his disabling
stroke. And in Pueblo this summer, Obama announced what should be a
disqualifying aspiration.
After a delusional proclamation — General Motors “has come roaring back”
— Obama said: “Now I want to do the same thing with manufacturing jobs,
not just in the auto industry, but in every industry.” We have been
warned.
Obama’s supposed rescue of “the auto industry” — note the
definite article, “the” — is a pedal on the political organ he pumps
energetically in Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and elsewhere. Concerning
which:
He intervened to succor one of two of the U.S. auto
industries. One, located in the South and elsewhere, does not have a
long history of subservience to the United Auto Workers and for that
reason has not needed Obama’s ministrations. He showered public money on
two of three parts of the mostly Northern auto industry, the one long
entangled with the UAW. He socialized the losses of GM and Chrysler.
Ford was not a mendicant because it was not mismanaged.
Today, “I am GM, hear me roar”
is again losing market share, and its stock, of which taxpayers own 26
percent, was trading Thursday morning at $21, below the $33 price our
investor in chief paid for it and below the $53 price it would have to
reach to enable taxpayers to recover the entire $49.5 billion bailout. Roaring GM’s growth is in China.
But
let’s not call that outsourcing of manufacturing jobs, lest we
aggravate liberalism’s current bewilderment, which is revealed in two
words it dare not speak, and in a four-word phrase it will not stop
speaking. The two words are both verbal flinches. One is “liberal,” the
other “spend.” The phrase is “as we know it.”
Jettisoning the
label “liberal” was an act not just of self-preservation, considering
the damage liberals had done to the word, but also of semantic candor:
The noble liberal tradition was about liberty — from oppressive kings,
established churches and aristocracies. For progressives, as liberals
now call themselves, liberty has value, when it has value, only
instrumentally — only to the extent that it serves progress, as they
restlessly redefine this over time.
The substitution of “invest”
for “spend” (e.g., “We must invest more in food stamps,” and in this and
that) is prudent but risky. People think there has been quite enough of
(in Mitt Romney’s words) “throwing more borrowed money at bad ideas.”
But should progressives call attention to their record as investors of
other people’s money (GM, Solyndra, etc.)?
In 1992, candidate Bill Clinton’s campaign ran an ad that began: “For so long government has failed us,
and one of its worst features has been welfare. I have a plan to end
welfare as we know it.” This was before progressives defined progress as
preventing changes even to rickety, half-century-old programs:
Republicans “would end Medicare as we know it.”
When did
peculiarly named progressives decide they must hunker down in a
defensive crouch to fend off an unfamiliar future? Hoover Dam ended the
lower Colorado River as we knew it. Rockefeller Center ended midtown
Manhattan as we knew it. Desegregation ended the South as we knew it.
The Internet ended . . . you get the point. In their
baleful resistance to any policy not “as we know it,” progressives
resemble a crotchety 19th-century vicar in a remote English village
banging his cane on the floor to express irritation about rumors of a
newfangled, noisy and smoky something called a railroad.
Given
Democrats’ current peevishness, it is fitting that Sandra Fluke will
address their convention. In February she, you might not remember,
became for progressives the victim du jour of America’s insufficient
progress. She was a 30-year-old-student — almost half way to 62, when
elderly Americans can begin collecting Social Security — unhappy about
being unable to get someone else (Georgetown University, a Catholic
institution) to pay for her contraceptives.
Say this for Democrats: They recognize a symbol of their sensibility when they see one.
Motor City Madhouse - Ted Nugent Woh, welcome to my town
High energy is all around tonight
Woh, you best beware
There’s vi’lence in the air tonight. Huh.
Well, Detroit city, she’s the place to be
This mad dog town’s gonna set you free
Oh, when do we mount the stage?
Gonna cause a mad dog rage
Ha ha ha ha ha
Woh, when you see my name
Gonna set this town a flame
That’s right
Well, Detroit city’s just the place to be
Murder town’s gonna set you free tonight
Oh, no, ow!
Woh, those fortified motor cars,
High energy, and it’s all ours
Ha ha ha ha ha
Dig this
Woh, such a heavy place for the boys and girls,
It’s the murder capital of the world
Yeow!
Well, Detroit city, she’s the place to be,
Mad dog town gonna set you free
I say.
Motor City madhouse
Motor City madhouse
Motor City madhouse
Motor City madhouse
Motor City madhouse
Motor City madhouse
Motor City madhouse
(Spoken)
It’s such a madhouse, I can hardly get next to myself.
Motor City madhouse
Motor City madhouse
Motor City madhouse
Motor City madhouse
Motor City madhouse
Motor City madhouse
Motor City madhouse
I look around for the friends that I used to turn to to pull me through
Looking into their eyes I see them running too
An empty chair presidency occupied by an empty suit president.
From IBD:
Eastwood highlighted the empty chair and the empty promises and
policies that failed to lower both the sea level and the unemployment
rate, stuck at more than 8% for 42 months, a post-Depression record.
Meanwhile, President Obama jets to college campuses in the
carbon-gushing Air Force One to prattle on about student loans to
college students who won’t be able to find jobs.
Obama and his administration officials have made 435 taxpayer-funded
visits to college campuses or other events targeting students since
March 2011. Included have been 164 trips to battleground states, a new
study shows, leaving him too busy to meet with his jobs council to find
these kids work.
Eastwood’s empty chair reminds us of the poem by William Hughes
Mearns that goes in part: “Last night I saw upon the stair, A little man
who wasn’t there, He wasn’t there again today, Oh, how I wish he’d go
away .. .”
Eastwood suggests that in November we can make our invisible president do just that.
Running on Empty - Jackson Browne
Looking out at the road rushing under my wheels
Looking back at the years gone by like so many summer fields
In '65 I was seventeen and running up 101
I don't know where I'm running now, I'm just running on
Running on - running on empty
Running on - running blind
Running on - running into the sun
But I'm running behind
Gotta do what you can just to keep your love alive
Trying not to confuse it with what you do to survive
In '69 I was twenty-one and I called the road my own
I don't know when that road turned onto the road I'm on
Running on - running on empty
Running on - running blind
Running on - running into the sun
But I'm running behind
Everyone I know, everywhere I go
People need some reason to believe
I don't know about anyone but me
If it takes all night, that'll be all right
If I can get you to smile before I leave
Looking out at the road rushing under my wheels
I don't know how to tell you all just how crazy this life feels
I look around for the friends that I used to turn to to pull me through
Looking into their eyes I see them running too
Running on - running on empty
Running on - running blind
Running on - running into the sun
But I'm running behind
“The First
Time Ever I Saw Your Face I Was Pleasantly Reassured by How Pasty White
It Was.”
By Mark Steyn
American
racism is starting to remind me of American alcoholism. At the founding
of the republic, in the days when beer was thought of as “liquid bread”
and a healthy nutritional breakfast, Americans drank about three to
four times as much as they do now. Today the United States has a lower
per capita rate of alcohol consumption than almost any other developed
nation, but it has more alcoholism support groups than any other
developed nation — around 164 groups per million people. France, which
drinks about 50 percent more per capita than America, has one-twentieth
the number of support groups. The French and Italians enjoy drinking,
the English and Irish enjoy getting drunk, and Americans enjoy getting
drunk on ever more absurd stigmatizatory excess. At Walmart they card
you if you “appear to be under” — what is it up to now? 43? 57? And the
citizenry take this as a compliment: Well-preserved grandmothers return
from failed attempts to purchase a bottle of wine with gay cries of, “I
was carded at Costco! They’ve made my weekend!”
And so it goes with American racism: The less there is, the more
extravagantly the racism-awareness lobby patrols its beat. The Walmart
carding clerks of the media are ever more alert to those who “appear to
be” racist. On MSNBC, Chris Matthews declared this week that Republicans
use “Chicago” as a racist code word. Not to be outdone, his colleague
Lawrence O’Donnell pronounced “golf” a racist code word. When Senate
minority leader Mitch McConnell observed that Obama was “working to earn
a spot on the PGA tour,” O’Donnell brilliantly perceived that
subliminally associating Obama with golf is racist, because the word
“golf” is subliminally associated with “Tiger Woods,” and the word
“Tiger” is not so subliminally associated with cocktail waitress Jamie
Grubbs, nightclub hostess Rachel Uchitel, lingerie model Jamie Jungers,
former porn star Holly Sampson, etc., etc. So by using the word “golf”
you’re sending a racist dog-whistle that Obama is a sex addict who
reverses over fire hydrants.
While we’re on the subject of GOP white supremacists, former
secretary of state Condi Rice spoke movingly of her rise to the top from
a childhood in segregated Birmingham, Ala. But everyone knows that’s
just more Republican racist dog-whistling for “when’s Bull Connor gonna
whistle up those dogs and get me off stage?” Meanwhile, over at the Huffington Post, Geoffrey Dunn, author of The Lies of Sarah Palin
(St. Martin’s Press, 2011, in case you missed it), was scoffing at
Clint Eastwood’s star turn at the convention — “better known as the
Gathering of Pasty White People,” added Mr. Dunn, demonstrating the
stylistic panache that set a-flutter the hearts of so many St. Martin’s
Press commissioning editors. Warming to his theme, Mr. Dunn noted that
Clint had been mayor of “the upscale and frighteningly white community”
of Carmel, Calif..
To judge from his byline photo, Geoffrey Dunn is not only white but
“pasty white.” So too is Lawrence O’Donnell. If I recall correctly from
the last time I saw his show (1978 — the remote had jammed), Chris
Matthews is not just “pasty white” but “frighteningly white.” I happen
to be overseas right now, so perhaps that’s the reason that all these
“upscale and frighteningly white” American liberals seem even crazier
than usual in their more-anti-racist-than-thou obsessions. To me, the
word “Clint” is racist dog-whistling for “Play ‘Misty’ for Me,” which is
racist dog-whistling for “Erroll Garner,” which is racist dog-whistling
for “black pianist way better than Liberace.” Clint took The Bridges of
the Frighteningly White Madison County and gave it a cool Johnny
Hartman soundtrack. Clint introduced the world to Roberta Flack’s killer
song “The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face.”
But, as Geoffrey Dunn can explain, that’s racial code for “The First
Time Ever I Saw Your Face I Was Pleasantly Reassured by How Pasty White
It Was.” Also, Clint starred in The Eiger Sanction, a mountaineering thriller set on an Alp that was “upscale and frighteningly white.”
On the matter of those racist dog-whistles all these middle-aged white liberals keep hearing, the Wall Street Journal’s
James Taranto put it very well: “The thing we adore about these
dog-whistle kerfuffles is that the people who react to the whistle
always assume it’s intended for somebody else,” he wrote. “The whole
point of the metaphor is that if you can hear the whistle, you’re the
dog.” And a very rare breed at that. What frequency does a Mitch
McConnell speech have to be ringing inside your head for even the most
racially obsessed Caucasian MSNBC anchorman to hear the words “PGA tour”
as “deep-rooted white insecurities about black male sexuality”? That’s
way beyond dog-whistling, and somewhere between barking mad and frothing
rabid.
Still, now that “golf” and “Chicago” — along with “Clint,” “Medicare,”
“debt,” “jobs,” “foreign policy,” and “quantitative easing” — are all
racist code words, are there any words left that aren’t racist? Yes,
here’s one:
“Negrohood.”
Not familiar with it? New York Assembly candidate Ben Akselrod used
it the other day in a campaign mailout to Brooklyn electors, arguing
that his opponent “has allowed crime to go up over 50 percent in our
negrohood so far this year.”
Like Messrs. Dunn, Matthews, and O’Donnell, Ben Akselrod is
frighteningly pasty white, and a Democrat, and so presumably has highly
refined racial antennae. Had a campaign staffer suggested that Mr.
Akselrod’s opponent was wont to wear “plus-fours” and had a “niblick,”
obviously such naked racism would have been deleted in the first draft.
But the more subtly allusive “negrohood” apparently just slipped
through.
Mr. Akselrod now says it was a “typo.” Could happen to anyone. You’re
typing “neighborhood,” and you leave out the “i,” and the “h” and “b,”
and the “o” and “r” get mysteriously inverted. Either that, or your
desktop came with Al Sharpton’s spellcheck. And then nobody at the
campaign office reading through the mailer spotted it. Odd.
It’s only the beginning of September. So we’ve got two more months
of this. I don’t know how it will play in the negrohoods of Chicago —
whoops, sorry, I apologize for saying “Chicago” — but let me make a
modest observation from having spent much of the last few months
traveling round foreign parts. When you don’t have frighteningly white
upscale liberals obsessing about the racist subtext of golf, it’s
amazing how much time it frees up to talk about other stuff. For
example, as dysfunctional as Greece undoubtedly is, if you criticize the
government’s plans for public-pensions provision, there are no Chris
Matthews types with such a highly evolved state of racial consciousness
that they reflexively hear “watermelon” instead of the word “pensions.”
So instead everyone discusses the actual text rather than the imaginary
subtext. Which may be why political discourse in the euro zone is
marginally less unreal than ours right now: At least they’re talking
about “austerity”; over here we’re still spending, and more than ever.
Time’s Mark Halperin wrote this week that “Obama can’t win
if he can’t swing the conversation away from the economy.” That’s a
pretty amazing admission. The economy is the No. 1 issue on the minds of
voters, and, beyond that, the central reality of Obama’s America. But
to win the president has to steer clear. That doesn’t leave a lot else.
Hence, the racism of golf, the war on women, the carcinogenic properties
of Mitt Romney. Democrat strategy 1992: It’s the economy, stupid.
Democrat strategy 2012: It’s the stupidity, economists.
Both British and US interests would be best served by a victory for Mitt
Romney
By Daniel Hannan
American pollsters will tell you that the presidential candidate who is in the
lead going into the party conventions usually wins. Four polls last week
showed a tiny lead for Barack Obama, two for Mitt Romney and one was level;
all seven were well within the margin of error.
Another rule is that the Gallup poll taken 100 days before the poll foretells
the winner. Only once in the past 60 years – the Bush-Dukakis race of 1988 –
did that predictor fail. So, what did Gallup show on the date in question? A
dead heat, with both candidates on 46 per cent.
Many Europeans wonder why Mr Obama is not comfortably ahead. Most media, both
within the US and abroad, portray him as a serene statesman being shouted at
by angry Tea Partiers in 18th-century fancy dress. Viewed solely through the
medium of a television screen, he seems bigger than his Republican critics.
They are presented as a gaggle of anti-abortionists, stump-toothed mountain
men and crackpots hoarding gold against the presumed collapse of paper
currencies – an extremist coalition led by a plutocrat. Seen from abroad, it
looks like an election between Dr Hibbert and Montgomery Burns.
Then again, we don’t have to live with Mr Obama’s domestic policies. We see
him doing what he does best: making speeches, carrying out ceremonial duties
and reminding the world, simply by holding office, that America had the
spirit to move in one generation from the formalised exclusion of black
voters to the election of a mixed-race president.
It was largely on these grounds that I supported Mr Obama four years ago. I
was distressed by the Republican Party’s abandonment of free markets for
crony capitalism. I thought that Mr Obama’s election would wipe away the
stain of segregation. And, frankly, I enjoyed his speeches.
Four years on, the speeches are starting to grate. Americans are tiring of
their leader’s charm, much as we tired of Tony Blair’s. When demanding a
trillion-dollar stimulus package at the start of his term, Mr Obama promised
that it would bring unemployment down to below 5.6 per cent; today, the
figure stands at 8.3 per cent. He pledged, in that slightly millenarian
manner of his, to halve the deficit. Four years on, the deficit has fallen
from $1.3 trillion to, er, $1.2 trillion. America’s credit rating has been
downgraded as $5 trillion has been added to the national debt.
These are indescribable sums. There are no superlatives that can adequately
convey what a $16 trillion national debt means. But Americans don’t need to
wrap their minds around the statistics to know that they are worse off than
they were 12 months ago, and will be yet worse off 12 months from now.
The real question is not why Mr Obama isn’t comfortably ahead, but why Mr
Romney isn’t. When 64 per cent of Americans say that they expect their
standard of living to decline under Mr Obama, and when Mr Romney enjoys a
19-point lead on economic competence, the election ought to be a walkover.
Why isn’t it?
Largely because, so far, the campaign hasn’t really been about the economy.
Before the Republican convention, the main news story was about a Republican
senate candidate called Todd Akin who had made some idiotic remarks about
rape – remarks which he immediately withdrew, which were universally
condemned by the rest of his party and which concern a subject that is, in
any case, wholly beyond the remit of the White House. The week before, the
main issue had been gay marriage – again, a topic that has nothing to do
with the federal government, being within the jurisdiction of the 50 states.
I can understand why Democrat strategists want to talk about something other
than their economic record. As a delegate from Idaho said to me at the
Republican convention this week: “Now I know how they must have felt when we
kept talking about John Kerry.”
Mr Romney has been attacked as a shill for Wall Street, a vulture capitalist
who takes pleasure in sacking people and (whisper it) a member of a strange
cult that baptises the dead.
On Thursday night, rather late in the campaign, he answered his critics.
Members of his congregation stepped forward to tell of the many acts of
kindness and generosity that his faith had inspired, including his regular
visits to a dying 14-year-old boy. If we didn’t already know about these
things, ran the subtext, it was because Mitt Romney was naturally modest.
Similarly, entrepreneurs lined up to praise the way his company had got
their businesses started. It makes sense: religious toleration is drilled
into Americans by their history, their constitution and their natural good
manners, and the whispers against Mr Romney’s Mormonism have prompted a
backlash from all creeds. Similarly, the sneers about his business record
are starting to jar in a country where making a profit is regarded, I’m glad
to say, as laudable rather than culpable.
Mr Romney’s team want to portray him as a competent, traditional, pro-business
Republican. “President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the
oceans and heal the planet,” Mr Romney told delegates in Tampa. “My promise
is to help you and your family.” It makes sense. If you needed a plumber,
would you send for the better orator or the more skilled technician?
Mr Romney is not a natural speech-maker. Once or twice during his address, I
found my attention wandering. Then my eye would fall on the horrifying debt
clock hanging over the hall and I’d remember quite how important this
election is.
From a British point of view, the choice should be straightforward. Mr Obama
made clear in his book, Dreams From My Father, that he had a low opinion of
us, and has acted accordingly, removing Winston Churchill’s bust from the
Oval Office, backing Argentina’s demands for sovereignty talks over the
Falklands, raging at an imaginary company called “British Petroleum” during
the Gulf oil spill. Mr Romney, by contrast, is an old-fashioned Republican
when it comes to foreign policy: he knows who America’s friends are.
There is, though, a much stronger reason for wanting him to win. Focused as we
are on what the Chancellor calls the “chilling effect” of the euro crisis,
we rarely consider the possibility of a similar crisis in the United States.
Yet, if we employ the measure used to calculate the Maastricht criteria, the
US has a larger national debt than Greece’s. And whereas a Greek default
might be managed as a controlled explosion, a collapse in the US would blow
the world economy to splinters.
Whether Mitt Romney can eliminate the deficit is not clear. What is beyond
doubt, though, is that Mr Obama cannot. His four years have left America
poorer, less happy and less free. As Clint Eastwood told Republican
delegates: “Politicians are employees of ours – and if somebody does not do
the job, we gotta let ’em go.”
In a television interview after Mr Romney’s speech, the presenter asked me
whether it was possible to win on an austerity message. Hadn’t the Greeks
just punished the politicians who suggested deep budget cuts? “Yes,” I told
him, “but Americans aren’t Greeks. We expect better of you.”
By a 4 point margin, more voters
identify as GOP than Democrat. This is the largest spread between the
parties ever.
By Mike Flynn
According tonew research released today
by Rasmussen, more voters identify themselves as Republican than ever
in the last 8 years. More importantly, by a 4 point margin, more voters
identify as GOP than Democrat. This is the largest spread between the
parties ever. Worse for Democrats, the number of voters who identify
with their party is also approaching an historic low.
In August, 37.6% of voters identified themselves as Republican. That
is up from 34.9% in July. By contrast, just 33.3% of voters identify
themselves as Democrats. That is very near their historic low in
February, when 32.4% of voters identified as Democrat.
The 4.3 margin in
favor of the GOP is the biggest gap ever between the parties. In
November 2010, when the GOP won a landslide in the mid-term elections,
their advantage was just 1.3 points.
Immediately prior to Obama's inauguration, the Democrat party held anearly 9 point edge over Republicans. Over 41% of voters called themselves Democrats then,
compared to around 32% who were Republicans. It is a stunning reversal
as Obama heads into reelection.
The last time GOP was close to this level was September 2004.
President Bush went on to win reelection two months later, with an
electorate that was evenly split. Even then, more voters called
themselves Democrats then, but the party's advantage over the GOP was
just over 1 point.
Most of the polls this year are based on the assumption that the
Democrats will have a numerical advantage on election day. Many media
polls assume even that the electorate in November will be more Democrat
than it was in 2008. Based on these results, that event is close to
mathematically impossible.
If the GOP advantage holds through November, it is likely that the
electorate will be evenly split, like it was in 2004 or possibly have a
Republican edge. If that is the case, then current media polling is way
off-base. Democrats and the media may wake up in shock on November 7th.
Chris Matthews, the new, but past his prime, Fonzi.
Mr Bojangles - Sammy Davis, Jr
I knew a man Bojangles and he'd dance for you in worn out shoes
Silver hair, ragged shirt and baggy pants, that old soft shoe
He'd jump so high, he'd jump so high, then he lightly touched down
Mr. Bojangles, Mr. Bojangles, dance.
I met him in a cell in New Orleans, I was down and out
He looked to me to be the eyes of age as he spoke right out
He talked of life, he talked of life, laughing slapped his leg stale
Mr. Bojangles, Mr. Bojangles, dance.
He said the name Bojangles and he danced a lick all across the cell
He grabbed his pants for a better stance, oh he jumped so high and he clicked
up his heels
He let go laugh, he let go laugh, shook back his clothes all around
Mr. Bojangles, Mr. Bojangles, dance, yeah, dance.
He danced for those at minstrel shows and county fairs throughout the south
He spoke with tears of 15 years of how his dog and him but just travelled all about
His dog up and died, he up and died, and after 20 years he still grieves
Mr. Bojangles, Mr. Bojangles, dance.
He said I dance now at every chance at honky-tonks for drinks and tips
But most of the time I spend behind these county bars, cause I drink so bit
He shook his head, yes he shook his head, I heard someone ask him, please,
Mr. Bojangles, Mr. Bojangles, dance, dance, Mr Bojangles, dance.
Whoa, you like to think that you're immune to the stuff, oh Yeah
It's closer to the truth to say you can't get enough,
You know you're gonna have to face it, you're addicted to love
The lights are on, but you're not home...
“I do think, at a certain point, you've made enough money.”
- President Barack Obama, 29 April 2010
Right back 'atcha, honey:
"I do think, at a certain point, you've spent enough money."
- Me
Addicted To Love - Robert Palmer
The lights are on, but you're not home
Your mind is not your own
Your heart sweats, your body shakes
Another kiss is what it takes
You can't sleep, you can't eat
There's no doubt, you're in deep
Your throat is tight, you can't breathe
Another kiss is all you need
Whoa, you like to think that you're immune to the stuff, oh Yeah
It's closer to the truth to say you can't get enough,
You know you're gonna have to face it, you're addicted to love
You see the signs, but you can't read
You're running at a different speed
Your heart beats in double time
Another kiss and you'll be mine,
A one-track mind, you can't be saved
Oblivion is all you crave
If there's some left for you
You don't mind if you do
Whoa, you like to think that you're immune to the stuff, oh Yeah
It's closer to the truth to say you can't get enough,
You know you're gonna have to face it, you're addicted to love
Might as well face it, you're addicted to love [5x]
Your lights are on, but you're not home
Your will is not your own
Your heart sweats your teeth grind
Another kiss and you'll be mine
Whoa, you like to think that you're immune to the stuff, oh Yeah
It's closer to the truth to say you can't get enough,
You know you're gonna have to face it, you're addicted to love
Might as well face it, you're addicted to love [8x]
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
I've been running hot
You got me ticking gonna blow my top
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
Never stop, never stop, never stop
Close races, like the current one, have higher likelihood of a "shake-up"
by Andrew Dugan
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As the 2012 presidential
conventions get underway in Tampa, Fla., a Gallup analysis of 15
elections from 1952 to 2008 shows that in all but three instances --
1988, 1992, and 2004 -- the candidate leading in the Gallup poll
conducted just prior to the first convention (the "pre-convention poll")
has won the November election.
Pre-convention polls are not good predictors of a candidate's final vote
share, but they are useful in terms of simply forecasting which
candidate will win the election. Overall, 80% of the pre-convention
leaders went on to become president, although that success percentage
figure includes the disputed 2000 election, in which George W. Bush was
elected without winning the popular vote.
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have been tied or very close in recent Gallup Daily tracking
averages. Gallup's final pre-convention standing of the two candidates
will be based on the Aug. 20-26 average and posted Monday afternoon on
Gallup.com. If either candidate is ahead in that average, the historical
data outlined below suggest that candidate is more likely to be the
eventual winner, although close races such as this one suggest more
potential for exceptions to that pattern.
Big Bounces, Lack Thereof Have Bucked the Trend
Each of the three elections in which the leader in the pre-convention polls went on to lose had differing scenarios.
In 1992, George H.W. Bush led in both a two-candidate race vs. Bill
Clinton and a three-candidate race vs. Clinton and independent Ross
Perot prior to the Democratic convention that year. Perot dropped out of
the race during the Democratic convention. Clinton enjoyed a tremendous
bump in support after the convention and never trailed again, even
after Perot rejoined the race in October.
The other two elections in which a leading candidate eventually lost
provide clearer examples of changes in the overall political dynamic
caused by the convention/debate segment of the campaign. Entering the
conventions in 1988, then-Vice President George H.W. Bush trailed
Democrat Michael Dukakis by six points prior to the Democratic
convention, and fell further behind after it. Bush's lagging in the
polls might at least partially be ascribed to "party fatigue," stemming
from the same political party's holding control of the White House for
two terms (all four incumbent vice presidents running for president
since Richard Nixon in 1960 trailed their opponent at this point of the
campaign). However, a month later, Bush received a big bounce from his
convention that pushed him into the lead, and he never trailed from that
point on.
The 2004 election was generally competitive between George W. Bush
and John Kerry throughout. Bush was slightly behind Kerry just before
the first convention -- the Democrats', from which Kerry got no bounce
-- but Bush went on to win the election by three percentage points that
November.
Eventual Vote Tallies Tend to Differ From Pre-Convention Polls
Regardless of the eventual winner, the margins in the final
popular-vote tally can differ significantly from what is suggested by
the pre-convention polling. This can result from many factors -- the
convention bounce, the debates, the effect of the campaigns, undecided
voters finally choosing a side, and which registered voters actually
vote in the election.
John Kennedy was leading Nixon by four points prior to the
conventions in 1960, yet went on to win the vote by less than one point.
Jimmy Carter was leading Gerald Ford by 17 points prior to the
conventions in 1976, yet won by only a two-point margin. Ronald Reagan
was ahead by three points in 1980, but he won by 10 points. Bill
Clinton's pre-convention margin of 22 points over Bob Dole shrank to
nine points in the final popular vote.
Margins fluctuate, but the strength of support in pre-convention
polls can identify solid favorites. All candidates polling above 50%
prior to the first convention, always good territory for office-seekers,
went on to victory -- although Jimmy Carter nearly became an exception
in 1976, with his two-point margin against incumbent Gerald Ford.
Close 2012 Race is Akin to 1960, 1968, 1980, 2004, and 2008
This year, incumbent President Obama has not been able to sustainjob approval ratings above 50% and in similar fashion so far has not edged over 50% in Gallup Daily tracking polls of presidential vote preferences
(although Romney has not either). Obama and Romney have for the most
part been closely matched over the last four months. Thus, the current
standing of the two candidates in the polls most closely resembles 1960,
1968, 1980, 2004, and 2008 -- all elections in which pre-convention
polling showed one candidate leading the other by four points or fewer.
Still, in four of those five, with 2004 the exception, the candidate
with even a slim lead prior to the first convention went on to victory.
Close Races Going Into Conventions Most Likely to See Shake-Ups
Gallup's historical trends demonstrate that both candidates tend to get a "bounce" out of their respective conventions.
In order to control for the possibility that support for the candidate
nominated in the second convention would be overstated in polls directly
after that convention, Gallup examined surveys conducted at least 14
days after the last convention (but before the first debate, if
applicable).
Historically speaking, candidates well behind in the polls before the
convention process begins are unlikely to improve their position in any
meaningful way, even if they achieve a small bounce. And candidates who
are well ahead also maintain their positioning. Presidential nominating
conventions have influenced voter preferences and even created new
favorites only when the final pre-convention-period poll showed signs of
electoral gridlock in the form of no clear, indisputable winner. In
that sense, 2012 looks to be an especially ripe year for the conventions
to have a significant effect on the overall standing of the two
candidates.
This is because there is a higher likelihood of a "shake-up" in who
leads in the polls if the two candidates are running fairly close before
the conventions begin. Furthermore, these changes can be consequential.
In 1988, 1992, 2000, and 2004, the lead changed after the two
conventions, and three of those candidates who emerged as leaders went
on to be elected president. The fourth such candidate, then-Vice
President Al Gore, did go on to win the popular vote, but not the
election.
In another two instances, 1960 and 1980, the candidates running
behind were able to pull even after the conventions, but both were
eventually defeated.
Also, 1968 provides an example of how unusual circumstances produce
an unusual process. Before the conventions, the Republican Nixon held a
modest lead of two points over Democrat Hubert Humphrey. After both
conventions, Nixon's advantage had swelled to 15 points, most likely as a
result of the highly visible breakdown of law and order at the
Democratic convention in Chicago. Still, by Election Day the race had
become neck and neck again, and Nixon ended up winning by a slim
one-point margin in the popular vote.
Bottom Line
As the 2012 presidential campaign enters the convention phase of the
cycle, the large-scale, nationally televised rallies in Tampa and
Charlotte will likely excite each party's fervent supporters and serve
as an endless source of commentary among political analysts as to which
candidate put on the better performance. Some of this energy may be
reflected in the polls: Gallup has found that most candidates can expect
a "bounce" in their support after their nominating convention, withthe median uptick being five points.
Observers will be especially interested in the impact of the two
conventions, given the closeness of the 2012 race, in which both
candidates have rarely enjoyed a lead any larger than three points in Gallup Daily tracking.
All else being equal, the leader of the Gallup poll prior to the
convention has an 80% probability of winning the election, according to
past data.
Of course, all else is not equal. When pre-convention polls show a
tight race, as is the case this year, conventions have been more likely
to create new leaders or galvanize support for a heretofore weak leader.
Thus, both President Obama and Romney have the potential this year to
gain an upper hand as a result of the convention process.
A future analysis will look over the relationship between polls conducted soon after both conventions and their worth in predicting the election outcome.
UPDATE: Gallup released its pre-convention poll this afternoon. The results:
Romney: 47%
Obama: 46%
Start Me Up - The Rolling Stones
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
I've been running hot
You got me ticking gonna blow my top
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
Never stop, never stop, never stop
You make a grown man cry (x3)
Spread out the oil, the gasoline
I walk smooth, ride in a mean, mean machine
Start it up
If you start it up
Kick on the starter give it all you got, you got, you got
I can't compete with the riders in the other heats
If you rough it up
If you like it you can slide it up,
Slide it up, slide it up, slide it up
Don't make a grown man cry (x3)
My eyes dilate, my lips go green
My hands are greasy
She's a mean, mean machine
Start it up
If start me up
Ahh... give it all you got
You got to never, never, never stop
Slide it up, baby just slide it up
Slide it up, slide it up, never, never, never
You make a grown man cry (x3)
Ride like the wind at double speed
I'll take you places that you've never, never seen
If you start it up
Love the day when we will never stop, never stop
Never, never, never stop
Tough me up
Never stop, never stop
You, you, you make a grown man cry
You, you make a dead man come
You, you make a dead man come
There's a place for the baby that died,
And there's time for the mother who cried.
And she will hold him in her arms sometime,
'Cause nine months is too long, too long, too long...
How, how could you hurt the child,
How could you hurt the child?
Now, does this make you satisfied,
Satisfied, satisfied?
Hence the dangerous (for liberals) question lurking beneath the surface
of the Akin controversy. If the Republican nominee for Senate in
Missouri is an extremist on abortion, what does that make the president
of the United States?
By
ROSS DOUTHAT
IN 1971, two years before Roe v. Wade, the philosopher Judith Jarvis Thomson used an arresting thought experiment to makethe case for legalized abortion.
Imagine, wrote Thomson, that you awoke to find yourself lashed to a
famous violinist. The violinist suffers from a lethal kidney disease,
and because only your blood type can save his life, his admirers have
kidnapped you and looped your circulatory systems together. If you
consent to remain thus entangled for nine months, he will make a full
recovery. Disentangle yourself, however, and he dies.
Thomson suggested that a woman facing an unintended pregnancy is in a
similar position. Her body is effectively being held hostage, and while
carrying the unborn life to term might be a heroic act, it cannot be
required of her, any more than you could be required to meekly accept
your fate as a prisoner of the violinist.
Provocative as it is, there are obvious problems with this analogy. It
implies that there’s no difference between declining to provide medical
treatment and taking a life directly, and no difference between the
moral obligations owed a stranger and the obligations owed one’s own
child.
The biggest difficulty, though, is that most women considering an
abortion were not kidnapped and impregnated against their will. They
freely chose the act that brought the fetus into being, and analogizing
their situation to a kidnap victim implies a peculiar, almost
infantilizing attitude toward female moral agency.
There is, however, one case where Thomson’s famous thought experiment
has a real and gripping power: pregnancies that result from rape. Then
the woman’s body has in a sense been kidnapped by her assailant, and the
life inside her is the consequence of a violation rather than a choice.
From a rigorous anti-abortion perspective, that life has the same
inalienable rights as any other innocent. But even the most rigorous
abortion foe recognizes the unique agony — and perhaps, the political
impossibility — involved in asking a woman to bear her rapist’s child.
It’s the desire to escape from this dilemma, no doubt, that explains the
Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin’s instantly infamous claim that
there’s actually no problem at all, because “legitimate” rape victims
don’t get pregnant in the first place.
Blending superstition, sexism and stupidity, his comments have been a
boon to the Democratic Party not only in Missouri but nationally as
well. In an election season where the Democratic incumbent has been
transparently eager to change the subject from the economy to social
issues, Akin handed the president and his party a great and unexpected
gift.
But great gifts are also great temptations. Having Akin front and center
is clearly helpful to the Democrats. Having liberal politicians harping
incessantly on the issue — accusing Mitt Romney (falsely) of favoring banning abortion in cases of rape, headlining abortion rights at the Democratic Convention, and so on — is a riskier maneuver.
As the Republican Party has discovered in the past, when voters want to
talk about the economy and you can’t stop talking about the culture war,
it’s easy to seem out of touch even when the public agrees with what
you’re saying.
On the abortion issue, too, Democrats have a tendency to forget that the public doesn’t necessarily agree with them. Only22 percent of Americans
would ban abortion in cases of rape or incest, according to Gallup. But
that’s an exceptional number for exceptional circumstances. The broader polling shows a country persistently divided, with women roughly as likely to
take the anti-abortion view as men. (Indeed, the small minority that
opposes abortion in cases of rape includes more women than men.)
These are issues where many Democratic politicians have something in
common with Akin: They have abortion positions well outside the American
mainstream.
Because the press is reliably sympathetic to the cause of abortion
rights, and because pro-choice extremism tends to be the province of
sophisticates and tastemakers, this reality does not always get the
attention it deserves. But it’s crucial to understanding the risk that
the Democrats are taking if they set out to make this election a
referendum on abortion.
That’s because in Barack Obama, they have a nominee who occupies the far leftward pole of the abortion debate, with along and reliable record of voting against even modest regulations on the practice — including a vote he cast as
an Illinois lawmaker against regulations intended to protect infants
born accidentally as a result of a botched abortion. President Obama
rarely bothers with Bill Clinton’s “safe, legal and rare” formulation:
he’s pro-choice with almost no limitations or exceptions.
Hence the dangerous (for liberals) question lurking beneath the surface
of the Akin controversy. If the Republican nominee for Senate in
Missouri is an extremist on abortion, what does that make the president
of the United States?
The Icicle Melts - The Cranberries
When, when will the icicle melt,
The icicle, icicle?
And when, when will the picture show end,
The picture show, picture show?
I should not have read the paper today,
'Cause a child, child, child, child he was taken away.
There's a place for the baby that died,
And there's time for the mother who cried.
And she will hold him in her arms sometime,
'Cause nine months is too long, too long, too long...
How, how could you hurt the child,
How could you hurt the child?
Now, does this make you satisfied,
Satisfied, satisfied?
I don't know what's happ'ning to people today,
When a child, child, child, child, he was taken away.
There's a place for the baby that died,
And there's time for the mother who cried.
And she will hold him in her arms sometime,
'Cause nine months is too long, too long, too long...
There's a place for the baby that died,
And there's time for the mother who cried.
And you will hold him in your arms sometime,
'Cause nine months is too long, too long, too long,
Too long.