Fund Your Utopia Without Me.™

04 May 2012

Jobs Picture Comparison: January 2009 v. April 2012

I ran the numbers comparing January, 2009, to April, 2012:

 January 2009:

Civilian labour force:  153,716m
Employed:  142,099m
Unemployed:  11,616m
Not in labour force:  81,023m
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:  5,682m
Participation Rate:  65.5%
Average Weeks Unemployed:  19.8
Unemployment rate:  7.6%

April 2012

Civilian labour force:  154,365m
Employed:  141,865m
Unemployed:  12,500m
Not in labour force:  88,419m
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:   6,299m
Participation rate:  63.6%
Average Weeks Unemployed:  39.1
Unemployment rate:  8.1%


Civilian labour force:  + .422%
Employed:  - .1647%
Unemployed:  + 7.61%
Not in labour force:  + 9.13%
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:   +10.86%
Participation rate:  - 2.9%
Average Weeks Unemployed:  + 97.47%
Unemployment rate:  + 6.6%

Change in nonfarm payrolls, January 2009 – April 2012

Total: +0.5%
Total private: +0.6%
Goods producing: -7.9%
Manufacturing: -5.5%
Service providing, private: +1.0%
Government: -0.1%
Federal government: +1.0%

The number of actual employed persons fell by 169,000.

Note that the biggest and steepest plunge has taken place since the Obama recovery started in June 2009.  The U-6 rate held steady in April nonetheless at 14.5%, even with the increased exodus of workers from the workforce.  

Real unemployment rate: "11.6%. Reason for difference: organic growth of labor force which grows alongside the broader population…the widely accepted definition of the labor pool, that used by the CBO and all other government forecasting agencies, assumes a 90,000 growth in the labor force every month as it has to keep in line with the growth of the US population! The implication is simple: using a real labor force participation rate long-term average of 65.8%, the real unemployment rate in April was 11.6%, based on the 5.4 million additional workers that should be counted as part of the U-3 which then means that the real number of unemployed is not 12.5 million but 17.9 million, which in turn implies a 11.6% unemployment rate in the US."

Hope.  Change.  Chronic unemployment.