M2RB: Rolling Stones
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
I've been running hot
You got me ticking gonna blow my top
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
Never stop, never stop, never stop
If you start me up I'll never stop
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
I've been running hot
You got me ticking gonna blow my top
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
Never stop, never stop, never stop
Close races, like the current one, have higher likelihood of a "shake-up"
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As the 2012 presidential
conventions get underway in Tampa, Fla., a Gallup analysis of 15
elections from 1952 to 2008 shows that in all but three instances --
1988, 1992, and 2004 -- the candidate leading in the Gallup poll
conducted just prior to the first convention (the "pre-convention poll")
has won the November election.
Pre-convention polls are not good predictors of a candidate's final vote
share, but they are useful in terms of simply forecasting which
candidate will win the election. Overall, 80% of the pre-convention
leaders went on to become president, although that success percentage
figure includes the disputed 2000 election, in which George W. Bush was
elected without winning the popular vote.
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have been tied or very close in recent Gallup Daily tracking
averages. Gallup's final pre-convention standing of the two candidates
will be based on the Aug. 20-26 average and posted Monday afternoon on
Gallup.com. If either candidate is ahead in that average, the historical
data outlined below suggest that candidate is more likely to be the
eventual winner, although close races such as this one suggest more
potential for exceptions to that pattern.
Big Bounces, Lack Thereof Have Bucked the Trend
Each of the three elections in which the leader in the pre-convention polls went on to lose had differing scenarios.
In 1992, George H.W. Bush led in both a two-candidate race vs. Bill
Clinton and a three-candidate race vs. Clinton and independent Ross
Perot prior to the Democratic convention that year. Perot dropped out of
the race during the Democratic convention. Clinton enjoyed a tremendous
bump in support after the convention and never trailed again, even
after Perot rejoined the race in October.
The other two elections in which a leading candidate eventually lost
provide clearer examples of changes in the overall political dynamic
caused by the convention/debate segment of the campaign. Entering the
conventions in 1988, then-Vice President George H.W. Bush trailed
Democrat Michael Dukakis by six points prior to the Democratic
convention, and fell further behind after it. Bush's lagging in the
polls might at least partially be ascribed to "party fatigue," stemming
from the same political party's holding control of the White House for
two terms (all four incumbent vice presidents running for president
since Richard Nixon in 1960 trailed their opponent at this point of the
campaign). However, a month later, Bush received a big bounce from his
convention that pushed him into the lead, and he never trailed from that
point on.
The 2004 election was generally competitive between George W. Bush
and John Kerry throughout. Bush was slightly behind Kerry just before
the first convention -- the Democrats', from which Kerry got no bounce
-- but Bush went on to win the election by three percentage points that
November.
Eventual Vote Tallies Tend to Differ From Pre-Convention Polls
Regardless of the eventual winner, the margins in the final
popular-vote tally can differ significantly from what is suggested by
the pre-convention polling. This can result from many factors -- the
convention bounce, the debates, the effect of the campaigns, undecided
voters finally choosing a side, and which registered voters actually
vote in the election.
John Kennedy was leading Nixon by four points prior to the
conventions in 1960, yet went on to win the vote by less than one point.
Jimmy Carter was leading Gerald Ford by 17 points prior to the
conventions in 1976, yet won by only a two-point margin. Ronald Reagan
was ahead by three points in 1980, but he won by 10 points. Bill
Clinton's pre-convention margin of 22 points over Bob Dole shrank to
nine points in the final popular vote.
Margins fluctuate, but the strength of support in pre-convention
polls can identify solid favorites. All candidates polling above 50%
prior to the first convention, always good territory for office-seekers,
went on to victory -- although Jimmy Carter nearly became an exception
in 1976, with his two-point margin against incumbent Gerald Ford.
Close 2012 Race is Akin to 1960, 1968, 1980, 2004, and 2008
This year, incumbent President Obama has not been able to sustain job approval ratings above 50% and in similar fashion so far has not edged over 50% in Gallup Daily tracking polls of presidential vote preferences
(although Romney has not either). Obama and Romney have for the most
part been closely matched over the last four months. Thus, the current
standing of the two candidates in the polls most closely resembles 1960,
1968, 1980, 2004, and 2008 -- all elections in which pre-convention
polling showed one candidate leading the other by four points or fewer.
Still, in four of those five, with 2004 the exception, the candidate
with even a slim lead prior to the first convention went on to victory.
Close Races Going Into Conventions Most Likely to See Shake-Ups
Gallup's historical trends demonstrate that both candidates tend to get a "bounce" out of their respective conventions.
In order to control for the possibility that support for the candidate
nominated in the second convention would be overstated in polls directly
after that convention, Gallup examined surveys conducted at least 14
days after the last convention (but before the first debate, if
applicable).
Historically speaking, candidates well behind in the polls before the
convention process begins are unlikely to improve their position in any
meaningful way, even if they achieve a small bounce. And candidates who
are well ahead also maintain their positioning. Presidential nominating
conventions have influenced voter preferences and even created new
favorites only when the final pre-convention-period poll showed signs of
electoral gridlock in the form of no clear, indisputable winner. In
that sense, 2012 looks to be an especially ripe year for the conventions
to have a significant effect on the overall standing of the two
candidates.
This is because there is a higher likelihood of a "shake-up" in who
leads in the polls if the two candidates are running fairly close before
the conventions begin. Furthermore, these changes can be consequential.
In 1988, 1992, 2000, and 2004, the lead changed after the two
conventions, and three of those candidates who emerged as leaders went
on to be elected president. The fourth such candidate, then-Vice
President Al Gore, did go on to win the popular vote, but not the
election.
In another two instances, 1960 and 1980, the candidates running
behind were able to pull even after the conventions, but both were
eventually defeated.
Also, 1968 provides an example of how unusual circumstances produce
an unusual process. Before the conventions, the Republican Nixon held a
modest lead of two points over Democrat Hubert Humphrey. After both
conventions, Nixon's advantage had swelled to 15 points, most likely as a
result of the highly visible breakdown of law and order at the
Democratic convention in Chicago. Still, by Election Day the race had
become neck and neck again, and Nixon ended up winning by a slim
one-point margin in the popular vote.
Bottom Line
As the 2012 presidential campaign enters the convention phase of the
cycle, the large-scale, nationally televised rallies in Tampa and
Charlotte will likely excite each party's fervent supporters and serve
as an endless source of commentary among political analysts as to which
candidate put on the better performance. Some of this energy may be
reflected in the polls: Gallup has found that most candidates can expect
a "bounce" in their support after their nominating convention, with the median uptick being five points.
Observers will be especially interested in the impact of the two
conventions, given the closeness of the 2012 race, in which both
candidates have rarely enjoyed a lead any larger than three points in Gallup Daily tracking.
All else being equal, the leader of the Gallup poll prior to the
convention has an 80% probability of winning the election, according to
past data.
Of course, all else is not equal. When pre-convention polls show a
tight race, as is the case this year, conventions have been more likely
to create new leaders or galvanize support for a heretofore weak leader.
Thus, both President Obama and Romney have the potential this year to
gain an upper hand as a result of the convention process.
A future analysis will look over the relationship between polls conducted soon after both conventions and their worth in predicting the election outcome.
UPDATE: Gallup released its pre-convention poll this afternoon. The results:
Romney: 47%
Obama: 46%
Start Me Up - The Rolling Stones
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
I've been running hot
You got me ticking gonna blow my top
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
Never stop, never stop, never stop
You make a grown man cry (x3)
Spread out the oil, the gasoline
I walk smooth, ride in a mean, mean machine
Start it up
If you start it up
Kick on the starter give it all you got, you got, you got
I can't compete with the riders in the other heats
If you rough it up
If you like it you can slide it up,
Slide it up, slide it up, slide it up
Don't make a grown man cry (x3)
My eyes dilate, my lips go green
My hands are greasy
She's a mean, mean machine
Start it up
If start me up
Ahh... give it all you got
You got to never, never, never stop
Slide it up, baby just slide it up
Slide it up, slide it up, never, never, never
You make a grown man cry (x3)
Ride like the wind at double speed
I'll take you places that you've never, never seen
If you start it up
Love the day when we will never stop, never stop
Never, never, never stop
Tough me up
Never stop, never stop
You, you, you make a grown man cry
You, you make a dead man come
You, you make a dead man come
If you start me up I'll never stop
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
I've been running hot
You got me ticking gonna blow my top
If you start me up
If you start me up I'll never stop
Never stop, never stop, never stop
You make a grown man cry (x3)
Spread out the oil, the gasoline
I walk smooth, ride in a mean, mean machine
Start it up
If you start it up
Kick on the starter give it all you got, you got, you got
I can't compete with the riders in the other heats
If you rough it up
If you like it you can slide it up,
Slide it up, slide it up, slide it up
Don't make a grown man cry (x3)
My eyes dilate, my lips go green
My hands are greasy
She's a mean, mean machine
Start it up
If start me up
Ahh... give it all you got
You got to never, never, never stop
Slide it up, baby just slide it up
Slide it up, slide it up, never, never, never
You make a grown man cry (x3)
Ride like the wind at double speed
I'll take you places that you've never, never seen
If you start it up
Love the day when we will never stop, never stop
Never, never, never stop
Tough me up
Never stop, never stop
You, you, you make a grown man cry
You, you make a dead man come
You, you make a dead man come
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