Music to read by:
Until recently, Barack Obama’s re-election was regarded as inevitable –
in the same way that summer follows spring, or a monsoon follows a hosepipe
ban. The president’s poll lead over Mitt Romney was strong, while the
Republican’s character was assassinated by a primary fight that permanently
spoiled the reputation of his party. To court the GOP’s conservative base,
Romney was forced to adopt positions on abortion, contraception, health care
and welfare that are thought to be unpopular among moderate swing voters.
Obama, by contrast, is the man who killed bin Laden and toppled Gaddafi. A
choice between Obama the moderate statesman and Romney the craven
conservative is surely no contest at all.
But in the last two weeks, things have changed. Obama’s re-election is no longer guaranteed; some pollsters think it is unlikely. Day by day, the odds are improving that Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States.
What changed? For a start, voters are getting gloomier about the economy. Joblessness remains high and debt is out of control. According to one poll released this week, only 33 per cent of Americans expect the economy to improve in the coming months and only 43 per cent approve of the way that the president has handled it. Voters think Obama has made the debt situation and health care worse. The man who conducted the poll – Democrat Peter Hart – concluded that “Obama’s chances for re-election… are no better than 50-50.”
The president has tried to distract from America’s economic misery by playing up the so-called culture war. Earlier in the year he decided that he would force Catholic employers to provide contraception to their employees through their insurance plans, and he followed that swipe at social traditionalism by endorsing gay marriage.
This embrace of Sixties liberalism has backfired.
While contraception and gay marriage often receive popular support in
national polls, Americans are far more conservative in the voting booth.
Thirty-two states have voted on gay marriage and all 32 have voted to outlaw it – even liberal California. Nor has the culture war rallied his party’s base. In presidential primaries held on Tuesday, 39 per cent of Arkansas Democrats and 42 per cent of Kentuckian Democrats rejected Obama’s re-nomination. In West Virginia, 41 per cent of the state’s Democrats voted for an imprisoned criminal rather than the president.
The result is that pollsters find Obama and Romney edging towards one another. Rasmussen puts Obama only one point ahead; Gallup calls it a tie. With Romney doing better than the president in key swing states North Carolina and Florida, Gallup has publicly stated that Obama now has a higher chance of losing rather than winning.
But it isn’t just Obama’s flaws that are making this race interesting. Mitt
Romney might not be the most charismatic candidate, but that’s a hidden
strength in an election that’s all about competence and getting back to the
basics of what once made America work so well.
In fact, the grey Mr Romney is repeating the same formula that won him the governorship of Massachusetts, an ordinarily Democrat state, in 2002. He pulled that off by motivating large numbers of Republicans to vote for him, breaking into the working-class vote and keeping turnout among Democrats fairly low. The unique genius of Romney was his ability to say very conservative things but in a manner that convinced many centrists that he didn’t really mean them. That’s happening again in 2012, as polls indicate that far more Americans think Obama is too Left-wing than believe Romney is too Right-wing.
Of course, Romney has his weaknesses. But they are fewer than Obama’s, whose charisma disguises a multitude of problems so great that it’s hard to imagine him overcoming them. Gallup makes the following observation: “Comparing today’s economic and political ratings with those from previous years when presidents sought re-election reveals that today’s climate is more similar to years when incumbents lost than when they won.” I would go one step further: Obama’s situation is actually worse than that of some of the incumbents who have lost in the past.
None the less, Carter eventually suffered a landslide defeat. The scale of his humiliation was hidden by the fact that people were unwilling to commit themselves to the conservative Ronald Reagan until the very last minute. It was only when they went into the polling booth and weighed up all the hurt and humiliation of the past four years that they cast their vote against the president.
It looks like Barack Obama will be the Jimmy Carter of 2012.
This week, the pro-Obama
journalist Andrew Sullivan wrote that with his wealth, good looks and
apple-pie conservatism, Romney is like “a focus-group tested model president
from 1965”. Sullivan obviously doesn’t realise how popular the TV show Mad
Men is. Who wouldn’t warm to a candidate that represents an age marked by
low unemployment, stable families and a laissez-faire attitude towards
drinking at work?
In fact, the grey Mr Romney is repeating the same formula that won him the governorship of Massachusetts, an ordinarily Democrat state, in 2002. He pulled that off by motivating large numbers of Republicans to vote for him, breaking into the working-class vote and keeping turnout among Democrats fairly low. The unique genius of Romney was his ability to say very conservative things but in a manner that convinced many centrists that he didn’t really mean them. That’s happening again in 2012, as polls indicate that far more Americans think Obama is too Left-wing than believe Romney is too Right-wing.
Of course, Romney has his weaknesses. But they are fewer than Obama’s, whose charisma disguises a multitude of problems so great that it’s hard to imagine him overcoming them. Gallup makes the following observation: “Comparing today’s economic and political ratings with those from previous years when presidents sought re-election reveals that today’s climate is more similar to years when incumbents lost than when they won.” I would go one step further: Obama’s situation is actually worse than that of some of the incumbents who have lost in the past.
In 1980, Democratic president Jimmy Carter faced an uphill struggle for
re-election. Yet, despite an index of inflation and unemployment far higher
than Obama’s, he was actually doing slightly better in the polls. In March
of that year, Carter led his Republican opponent, Ronald Reagan, by around
25 per cent. By May, Gallup gave him a lead of 49 to 41 per cent – higher
than Obama’s today. Carter’s advantage evaporated in the months that
followed, but he regained ground in October and by the last week he was
running even.
None the less, Carter eventually suffered a landslide defeat. The scale of his humiliation was hidden by the fact that people were unwilling to commit themselves to the conservative Ronald Reagan until the very last minute. It was only when they went into the polling booth and weighed up all the hurt and humiliation of the past four years that they cast their vote against the president.
It looks like Barack Obama will be the Jimmy Carter of 2012.
Related Reading:
Democratic Party to White, Working Class Voters: Drop Dead.
Democrats: Fired Up! Ready To Go! Vote Uncommitted 2012!
Role of American Capitalism on Trial
Here's A Secret: Austerity Does Work & Here's The Biggest Example Of It...Ever
Obama's Man In The Mirror: Jimmy Carter
Democratic Party to White, Working Class Voters: Drop Dead.
Democrats: Fired Up! Ready To Go! Vote Uncommitted 2012!
Role of American Capitalism on Trial
Here's A Secret: Austerity Does Work & Here's The Biggest Example Of It...Ever
Obama's Man In The Mirror: Jimmy Carter
"Man In The Mirror"performed by Michael Jackson
Written by Glen Ballard, Siedah Garrett
I'm gonna make a change
For once in my life
It's gonna feel real good
Gonna make a difference
Gonna make it right
As I, turn up the collar on
My favorite winter coat
This wind is blowing my mind
I see the kids in the streets
With not enough to eat
Who am I to be blind?
Pretending not to see their needs
A summer disregard, a broken bottle top
And a one man soul
They follow each other on the wind ya' know
'Cause they got nowhere to go
That's why I want you to know
I'm starting with the man in the mirror
I'm asking him to change his ways
And no message could have been any clearer
If you want to make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself, and then make a change
I've been a victim of a selfish kind of love
It's time that I realize
That there are some with no home, not a nickel to loan
Could it be really me, pretending that they're not alone?
A willow deeply scarred, somebody's broken heart
And a washed-out dream
They follow the pattern of the wind ya' see
'Cause they got no place to be
That's why I'm starting with me
I'm starting with the man in the mirror
I'm asking him to change his ways
And no message could have been any clearer
If you want to make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself, and then make a change
I'm starting with the man in the mirror
I'm asking him to change his ways
And no message could have been any clearer
If you want to make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself and then make that
Change!
I'm starting with the man in the mirror
(Oh yeah!)
I'm asking him to change his ways
(Better change!)
No message could have been any clearer
If you want to make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself and then make the change)
You gotta get it right, while you got the time
You can't close your, your mind!
(Then you close your, mind!)
That man, that man, that man, that man
With the man in the mirror
(Man in the mirror, oh yeah!)
That man, that man, that man
I'm asking him to change his ways
(Better change!)
No message could have been any clearer
If you want to make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself and then make the change
Oh no, no no
I'm gonna make a change
It's gonna feel real good!
Chime on!
(Change)
Just lift yourself
You know
You've got to stop it
Yourself!
(Yeah! Make that change!)
I've got to make that change, today!
Hoo!
(Man in the mirror)
You got to
You got to not let yourself
Brother
Hoo!
(Yeah! Make that change!)
You know, I've got to get
That man, that man
(Man in the mirror)
You've got to move! Chime on!
Chime on!
You got to
Stand up! Stand up! Stand up!
(Yeah! Make that change)
Stand up and lift yourself, now!
(Man in the mirror)
You know it!
You know it!
You know it!
You know it
(Change)
Make that change
For once in my life
It's gonna feel real good
Gonna make a difference
Gonna make it right
As I, turn up the collar on
My favorite winter coat
This wind is blowing my mind
I see the kids in the streets
With not enough to eat
Who am I to be blind?
Pretending not to see their needs
A summer disregard, a broken bottle top
And a one man soul
They follow each other on the wind ya' know
'Cause they got nowhere to go
That's why I want you to know
I'm starting with the man in the mirror
I'm asking him to change his ways
And no message could have been any clearer
If you want to make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself, and then make a change
I've been a victim of a selfish kind of love
It's time that I realize
That there are some with no home, not a nickel to loan
Could it be really me, pretending that they're not alone?
A willow deeply scarred, somebody's broken heart
And a washed-out dream
They follow the pattern of the wind ya' see
'Cause they got no place to be
That's why I'm starting with me
I'm starting with the man in the mirror
I'm asking him to change his ways
And no message could have been any clearer
If you want to make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself, and then make a change
I'm starting with the man in the mirror
I'm asking him to change his ways
And no message could have been any clearer
If you want to make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself and then make that
Change!
I'm starting with the man in the mirror
(Oh yeah!)
I'm asking him to change his ways
(Better change!)
No message could have been any clearer
If you want to make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself and then make the change)
You gotta get it right, while you got the time
You can't close your, your mind!
(Then you close your, mind!)
That man, that man, that man, that man
With the man in the mirror
(Man in the mirror, oh yeah!)
That man, that man, that man
I'm asking him to change his ways
(Better change!)
No message could have been any clearer
If you want to make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself and then make the change
Oh no, no no
I'm gonna make a change
It's gonna feel real good!
Chime on!
(Change)
Just lift yourself
You know
You've got to stop it
Yourself!
(Yeah! Make that change!)
I've got to make that change, today!
Hoo!
(Man in the mirror)
You got to
You got to not let yourself
Brother
Hoo!
(Yeah! Make that change!)
You know, I've got to get
That man, that man
(Man in the mirror)
You've got to move! Chime on!
Chime on!
You got to
Stand up! Stand up! Stand up!
(Yeah! Make that change)
Stand up and lift yourself, now!
(Man in the mirror)
You know it!
You know it!
You know it!
You know it
(Change)
Make that change
