Fund Your Utopia Without Me.™

03 August 2012

Jobs Picture Comparison: January 2009 v. July 2012 -- Stagnation Nation

M2RB:  The Verve at Glastonbury

Well I never pray
But tonight I'm on my knees yeah
I need to hear some sounds that recognize the pain in me, yeah
I let the melody shine, let it cleanse my mind, I feel free now
But the airways are clean and there's nobody singing to me now

This morning's jobs report for June was another abject, colossal, unmitigated, catastrophic disaster for the American economy, the millions of unemployed and underemployed, the college graduates hoping to embark upon a glowing career path, families, whose homes are underwater, and for one man, in particular, who has "focused like a laser beam" on one job: his.  That one man is President Barack Hussein Obama.

It has long been a very open secret that the Enron-style number-fudging that Señora Solis is doing over at the Department of Labour would land any of us in the private sector right next to Bernie Madoff R. Allen Stanford.  At this rate, Hilda may need to spring Bernie from prison to accomplish her one job mission -- well, other than the one creating hotlines for illegal immigrants to call to learn about their "rights":  Getting Barack Obama reelected.  Yep, only Madoff can create those kinds of numbers.

Essentially, Obama is demanding Daniel Boulud turn cow patties into Araguani Chocolate Cremeux and that is "Ce n'est tout simplement pas possible.  Comprendre?"
Another 150,000 Americans just VANISHED from the labour force last month.  Poof!   The number of Americans employed fell by 195,000.   Last month's number of jobs created was reduced from 80,000 to an even more measly 64,000.

The economy added 163,000 jobs added, seasonally adjusted. -- about one-third of them were in temporary services. Whoop-dee-doo!  When discouraged workers are added, the unemployment rate rises to 15.0%.   If we keep the participation rate at the level it was when Obama took office, then unemployment (U-3) is over 11%.


Some "fun facts" from our friend, Jim Pethokoukis:

Today’s 8.3% jobless rate is exactly what it was in February 2009, when Obama got his $838 billion stimulus package.  At that point, the civilian participation rate in the workforce was 65.8%.  Today’s was 63.7%.  In February 2009, we had 80.392 million people not participating in the workforce; as of July, that number has grown by almost eight million people, to 88.34 million, which took 42 months to grow.  The time it took previous to February 2009 to add eight million to those not in the workforce was 92 months, more than double the amount of time.

Hey!  Did someone say "War on Women"???  I've got ya a "War on Women."   Check it out:

In January 2009, the number of women employed was:  67.007m

In July 2012, the number of women employed was:  66,754m

In January 2009, the number of unemployed women was:  4.845m

In July 2012, the number of unemployed women was:  5.865m

The percentage change in the number of women employed between January 2009 and July 2012 has been a DECREASE of 0.378%.

The percentage change in the number of women unemployed between January 2009 and July 2012 has been an INCREASE of 21.053%.

 "Our growth rate is measly [so what did you expect?]"

- Austan Goolsbee, former Obama economic adviser

Measly growth rate?  Yeah, I guess you could call it that.  **eyeroll**  But, can we at least get it to hurry up so that we can get rid of this imbecile?  Seriously.  Who in their bloody mind would hire and expand with Black Jesus (h/t David Axelrod) as CEO of the country?

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for blacks (14.1%) edged down over the month from 14.4%, while the rates for adult men (8.4%), adult women (8.1% - up 0.7% since June), teenagers (23.7%), whites (7.4%), and Hispanics (10.3%) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.2% in July, down 1.1% since last year.  The unemployment rate for black teenagers is 38.1%, 21.7% for white teenagers, and 29.4% for Hispanic teens.

If we add in the long-term discouraged workers that the BLS does not even count anymore, the Shadow Government Statistics website reports the total unemployment rate increasing to 22.8% in June.


 A million more workers were suffering long-term unemployment of 27 weeks or longer in July than at the supposed end of the recession 3 years ago.

Who will rid us of this meddlesome priest?

OK, onto the business of the day.....

I ran the numbers comparing January, 2009, to July, 2012:

Civilian non-institution population:  234.739m
Civilian labour force:  153.716m
Employed:  142.099m
Employment-population ratio: 61.3
Unemployed:  11.616m
Not in labour force:  81.023m
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:  5.62m
Part-time, but want full-time job:  8.038m
Participation Rate:  65.5%
Average Weeks Unemployed:  19.8
Unemployment rate:  7.6% 

July 2012:

Civilian non-institutional population:  243.354m
Civilian labour force:  155.013m
Employed:  142.220m
Employment-population ratio:   58.4
Unemployed:  12.794m
Not in labour force:  88.340m
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:   6.554m
Part-time, but want full-time job:  8.246m
Participation rate:  63.7%
Average Weeks Unemployed:  38.8
Unemployment rate:  8.3%

Percentage Change:

Civilian non-institutional population:  +3.67 %
Civilian labour force:  +0.844 %
Employed:  +0.121%
Employment-population ratio:  -4.731%
Unemployed:   +10.141%
Not in labour force:   +9.031%
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:   +16.619%
Part-time, but want full-time job:   +2.588%
Participation rate:  -2.748%
Average Weeks Unemployed:  +95.96%
Unemployment rate:  +9.211%


More from James:

Only in a world of lowered, New Normal expectations was the July jobs report anything less than another disaster for U.S. workers. Nonfarm payrolls rose 163,000 last month as the unemployment rate rose to 8.3%. In addition, employment for May and June was revised by 6,000 jobs.

– Not only is the 8.3% unemployment rate way above the 5.6% unemployment rate that Team Obama predicted for July 2012 if Congress passed the $800 billion stimulus plan. It’s way above the 6.0% unemployment rate they predicted if no stimulus was passed.

– Job growth, as measured by nonfarm payrolls, has average about 75,000 jobs a month during the Obama recovery for a total of 2.7 million jobs. Context: During the first three years of the Reagan Recovery, job growth averaged 273,000 a month for a total of 9.8 million. If you adjust for the larger U.S. population today, the Reagan Recovery averaged 360,000 jobs a month for a three-year total of 13 million jobs.

– This continues to be the longest stretch of 8% or higher unemployment since the Great Depression, 42 straight months.

– If the labor force participation rate was the same as when Obama took office in January 2009, the unemployment rate would be 11.0%.

– Even if you take into account that the LFP should be declining as America ages, the unemployment rate would be 10.6%.

– If labor force participation rate hadn’t declined since just last month, unemployment rate would have risen to 8.4%.

– The broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes “all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons,” ticked up to 15.0%.

– Two years ago, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner wrote his now-infamous “Welcome to the Recovery” op-ed for the New York Times. During those two years, the economy has added an average of just 137,000 jobs a month.

Not only is the 8.3% unemployment rate way above the 5.6% unemployment rate that Team Obama predicted for July 2012 if Congress passed the $800 billion stimulus plan. It’s way above the 6.0% unemployment rate they predicted if no stimulus was passed.

– Good point on the report from IHS Global Insight:
In the household survey, which produces the unemployment rate, both the employment-to-population ratio and the labor force participation rate dropped, not signs of a healthy labor market. The report will alleviate fears that the US might be tipping back into recession. But uncertainties over the strength of global growth, the Eurozone crisis, the fiscal cliff and the November elections are giving plenty of reasons for caution. We expect subdued monthly job creation in the 100,000-150,000 region in the second half of the year
– And Citgroup’s take:
To keep us all guessing, today’s data included a particularly weak reading on employment from the household survey, which showed a 195,000 drop in employment and 150,000 drop in the labor force. The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% from 8.2%. While trend employment gains are not progressing at a particularly robust rate, we would not view a 0.1 percentage point move in a singlemonth reading as particularly significant. Also showing that the underlying trend is not very robust, the work week was unchanged and average hourly earnings rose just 0.1%, suggesting a much smaller gain in real income than reported in June (which also argues for smoothing). Aggregate hours worked rose a modest 0.1%.

Seasonal And Birth Death Adjustments Add 429,000 Statistical "Jobs"


Happy by the headline establishment survey print of 133,245 which says that the US "added" 163,000 jobs in July from 133,082 last month? Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print. So how did the smoothing work out to make a real plunge into an "adjusted" rise? Simple: the BLS "added" 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July NFP print in the past decade, possibly ever, as the first chart below shows. But wait, there's more: the Birth Death adjustment, which adds to the NSA Print to get to the final number, was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000% higher: the last B/D adjustment was a tiny +5K! In other words, of the 163,000 jobs "added", 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging. Doesn't matter - the flashing red headline is good enough for the algos.

Seasonal Adjustment:

Birth Death:

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