M2RB: Teddy Pendergrass
Just turn off the lights...
Some key numbers from recent Ohio polls
By Josh Jordan of NumbersMuncher
I wanted to do a quick note about Ohio polls. As of 10/15, the RCP
average is a 2.2% lead for Obama, which is down from a 5.6% lead just a
few weeks ago. The debate changed the trajectory of the race, and just
as before there are some key elements to look at when analyzing the Ohio
polls.
1. Party ID is more skewed than you think: This is a somewhat complicated issue that I highlighted in a pre-debate Ohio post. You can read the whole article at http://numbersmuncher.wordpress.com/2012/09/21/how-dead-is-romney-in-ohio/, but to keep this brief I just wanted to focus on the 2008 exit poll.
2008: This was a wave election and Barack Obama took
Ohio by 4.6%, 51.5 to 46.9. The exit polls show a split of 39%
Democrats, 31% Republicans, and 30% Independents. When you take that
breakdown and put it against the exit poll results of vote per party,
Obama would win 52.8 to 45.6 – 7.2% victory. This means that the exit
polls were off a little, which is normal since they are, after all, a
poll. On the plus side, having an *actual* vote total to compare to
makes it easier to work with. If you mess around with the exit poll
party % against the share of vote for each party, you come out with this
breakdown: 37.5% Democrats, 32.5% Republicans, and 30% Independents.
That gives you a vote of 51.6% for Obama and 46.9% for McCain – pretty
close to actual results. That means that while the 2008 exit polls show an EIGHT point Dem advantage, in reality it was likely closer to 5%. That is a huge difference when looking at the current polls.
What this means is that when you’re comparing to current polls, you
should be looking at party breakdown of Democrats +5 if you’re comparing
to 2008 turnout. Of the seven current Ohio polls, five of them
have D+4 or greater. For the most part, that means that current Ohio
polls are assuming 2008 turnout or greater which is growing more
unlikely with each passing day.
2. Romney is leading with independents. This one is
pretty simple: In 2008 Obama beat John McCain by 8% among independents.
That was part of propelled him to victory nationwide, and it played a
huge role in Ohio as well. Of the six current RCP polls that give
independent #s, Romney is up by an average of 5.1%. That is a 13% swing
in independents from 2008 to Romney. It is very hard to win indys by 5%
and lose the overall race unless democratic turnout can match 2008
levels.
3. The current polls are showing turnout matching or exceeding 2008 levels.
This is the last point, but it works off the first two. Of the seven
current RCP polls, the average democrat advantage in party ID is 5.4%.
If you work off a D+5 2008 advantage as outlined above, that means the
average poll in Ohio right now assumes the same turnout as 2008. While
anything is possible on 11/6, there are not many on either side thinking
Obama can match his 2008 advantages for a number of reasons. Here are
the two most obvious reasons to not work off of a 2008 turnout model:
1. Romney is going to keep up or outspend Obama on TV in the last
month. In 2008 McCain limped to the finish line with cash because of
taking public financing. This is not a problem this year, and can make a
difference on the margins in the final days.
2. In 2008 McCain had trouble getting more than a few thousand people
to see him at campaign rallies. While Palin was able to generate
larger crowds, the enthusiasm was not apparently for McCain and it hurt
him on election day. Since the debate, Romney has been pulling crowds
that Jeff Zeleny of the NYT referred to as “Obama sized crowds.”
The large Romney rallies point to a larger problem for Obama this
year – GOP enthusiasm is outperforming Democratic enthusiasm with three
weeks to go. This will translate to more volunteers in the state, higher
base turnout, and a much more robust GOTV effort.This is clearly hard
to translate before the election happens, but sometimes common sense
prevails when Obama won in 2008 largely because of a highly enthused base turning
out votes combined with a healthy lead with independents. Right now
Romney is leading with independents, has a more enthusiastic base and is
drawing crowds that rival Obama in Ohio. While he is down 2%, the
average poll is assuming 2008 turnout which is unlikely to repeat itself
this year. As if that was not enough, Obama is stuck at 48.3% which is
not a great place to be when the challenger has momentum in the final
days of a campaign. Not bad for a candidate declared dead in the state
just a few weeks ago.
Turn Off The Lights - Teddy Pendergrass
Turn off the lights and light a candle
Tonight I'm in a romantic mood, yeah
Let's take a shower, shower together, yeah
I'll wash your body and you'll wash mine, yeah
Rub me down in some hot oils, baby, yeah
And I'll do the same thing to you
Just turn off the lights, come to me
Girl, I wanna give you a special treat, you're so sweet
Turn off the lights and let's get cozy
See, you're the only one in the world that I need
I wanna love you, love you all over, yeah
Over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again
Whisper sweet words of love in your ear
Show you I much I missed you, missed you, my dear
Turn ‘em off and come to me
Tonight, I'm in a sexy mood, baby
And light a candle
Girl, there's something that I-I wanna do to you, I wanna do, I wanna do to you, baby
Would you mind if I asked you to
Would you rub me down
Would you rub me down in some, in some burnin' hot oils, baby, yeah
I swear I can do the same thing, the same thing to you, baby
Turn ‘em off and let's get cozy
I wanna give you a special treat, you've been so sweet
Turn ‘em off and come closer
You're the only one in this whole wide world that I'd ever need
Turn ‘em off and light a candle
You see, there's somethin' I, somethin' I, somethin' I, somethin' I
Somethin' I wanna do to you, baby
I'm lyin' here waitin', my dear
You can get what you want any time you want it
I'm lyin' here waitin', my dear
Come get what you need, give me what I need
Tell me what you wanna do (There's somethin' I)
Tell me what you wanna do, babe
(There's somethin' I, somethin' I wanna do to you, baby)
Tell me what you wanna do (Yeah)
Tell me what you wanna do, babe (Yes)
Tell me what you wanna do (I've got somethin' in my mind)
Tell me what you wanna do, babe
(Somethin' that I've been wantin' to do all the time, yeah, yes
Tell me what you wanna do (I wanna give you a special treat)
Tell me what you wanna do, babe (‘Cause you've been so sweet, yeah, yes)
(Anything that you want, anything that you need, I got it, I got it)
Tell me what you wanna do (I can do it)
Tell me what you wanna do, babe (I'm willin')
Tell me what you wanna do
Tell me what you wanna do, babe (I'm willin' to try)
