Jobs Picture Comparison: January 2009 v. June 2012 -- Stagnation Nation

M2RB:  The Verve, live at Glastonbury

 

 

Well I never pray
But tonight I'm on my knees yeah
I need to hear some sounds that recognize the pain in me, yeah
I let the melody shine, let it cleanse my mind, I feel free now
But the airways are clean and there's nobody singing to me now

This morning's jobs report for June was another abject, colossal, unmitigated, catastrophic disaster for the American economy, the millions of unemployed and underemployed, the college graduates hoping to embark upon a glowing career path, families, whose homes are underwater, and for one man, in particular, who has "focused like a laser beam" on one job: his.  That one man is President Barack Hussein Obama.

It has long been a very open secret that the Enron-style number-fudging that Señora Solis is doing over at the Department of Labour would land any of us in the private sector right next to Bernie Madoff R. Allen Stanford.  At this rate, Hilda may need to spring Bernie from prison to accomplish her one job mission -- well, other than the one creating hotlines for illegal immigrants to call to learn about their "rights":  Getting Barack Obama reelected.  Yep, only Madoff can create those kinds of numbers.

Essentially, Obama is demanding Daniel Boulud turn cow patties into Araguani Chocolate Cremeux and that is "Ce n'est tout simplement pas possible.  Comprendre?"

Hey!  Did someone say "War on Women"???  I've got ya a "War on Women."   Check it out:

In January 2009, the number of women employed was:  67.007m

In June 2012, the number of women employed was:  61.863m

In January 2009, the number of unemployed women was:  4.286m

In June 2012, the number of unemployed women was:  5.566m

The percentage change in the number of women employed between January
2009 and June 2012 has been a DECREASE of 7.677%.

The percentage change in the number of women unemployed between January 2009 and June 2012 has been an INCREASE of 29.865%.

The economy added a measly 80,000 jobs added -- about one-third of them were in temporary services. Whoop-dee-doo!  When discouraged workers are added, the unemployment rate rises to 14.9%.   Further, the average, monthly number of jobs added over the last 3 months was 75,000 -- making 2Q-2012 the worst quarter in 2 years.  Forward!

Slowdown?  Yeah, I guess you could call it that.  **eyeroll**  But, can we at least get it to hurry up so that we can get rid of this imbecile?  Seriously.  Who in their bloody mind would hire and expand with Black Jesus (h/t David Axelrod) as CEO of the country?

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for blacks (14.4%) edged up over the month, while the rates for adult men (7.8%), adult women (7.4%), teenagers (23.7%), whites (7.4%), and Hispanics (11.0%) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.3% in June, little changed from a year earlier.

In April, the number of actual employed persons fell by 169,000.  In May, the number of actual employed persons fell by 220,000.  In June, another 461,000 workers fell out of the workforce...and off of the face of the earth?

If we add in the long-term discouraged workers that the BLS does not even count anymore, the Shadow Government Statistics website reports the total unemployment rate increasing to 22.8% in June.

A million more workers were suffering long-term unemployment of 27 weeks or longer in June than at the supposed end of the recession 3 years ago. Moreover, the median length of unemployment had risen to 19.8 weeks in June compared to 17.2 when the recession supposedly ended.

Who will rid me of this meddlesome priest?

OK, onto the business of the day.....



I ran the numbers comparing January, 2009, to June, 2012:

January 2009:

Civilian non-institution population:  234.739m

Civilian labour force:  153.716m

Employed:  142.099m

Employment-population ratio: 61.3

Unemployed:  11.616m

Not in labour force:  81.023m

Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:  3.141m

Part-time, but want full-time job:  8.038m

Participation Rate:  65.5%

Average Weeks Unemployed:  19.8

Unemployment rate:  7.6% 



June 2012:

Civilian non-institutional population:  243.155m

Civilian labour force:  155.163m

Employed:  142.415m

Employment-population ratio:   58.6

Unemployed:  12.749m

Not in labour force:  87.992m

Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:   3.945m

Part-time, but want full-time job:  8.210m

Participation rate:  63.86%

Average Weeks Unemployed:  39.9

Unemployment rate:  8.2%

Percentage Change:

Civilian non-institutional population:  +3.585%

Civilian labour force:  +0.941%

Employed:  +0.222%

Employment-population ratio:  -4.405%

Unemployed:   +9.754%

Not in labour force:   +8.601%

Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:   +25.597%

Part-time, but want full-time job:   +2.14%

Participation rate:  -2.504%

Average Weeks Unemployed:  +101.515%

Unemployment rate:  +7.895%

Change in Non-Farm Payrolls, January 2009 – June 2012

January 2009:

 

Total:  134.580m
Total Private:  112.041m

Goods Producing:  20.245m

Manufacturing:  12.713m

Service Providing, Private:  91.796m

Government:  22.539m

Federal Government:  2.792m

June 2012:

Total:  133.088m

Total Private:  111.145m

Goods Producing:  18.314m

Manufacturing:  11.962m

Service Providing, Private:  92.831m

Government:  21.943m

Federal Government:  2.806.0m

Percentage Change:

Total:  -1.109%
Total private:  -0.8%
Goods producing:  -9.538%
Manufacturing:  -5.907%
Service providing, private: +1.128%
Government: -2.644%
Federal government: +0.501%

Hoax.  Chains.  Chronic unemployment.

 

From our friend, James Pethokoukis:

 

 

 

Stagnation Nation. 

 

 

This was not the employment report either the American worker or the Obama campaign wanted to see right now. The Labor Department said the U.S. economy created just 80,000 jobs in June, less than the 90,000 economists had been forecasting. And private-sector job growth was just 84,000, down sharply from 105,000 in May. Not doing fine.

The unemployment rate stayed at a lofty 8.2%.

As a research note from RDQ economics put it: “The good news is that employment growth is not slowing further but there is no sign of it picking up either.  At this pace, job creation is not fast enough to lower the unemployment rate with the labor force growing at close to 150,000 per month on average.”  Shorter:


Stagnation Nation


This continues to be the longest streak — 41 months — of unemployment of 8% or higher since the Great Depression. And recall that back in 2009, Team Obama predicted that if Congress passed its $800 billion stimulus plan, the unemployment rate would be around 5.6% today.

Just 75,000 jobs were created, on average, per month in the second quarter vs. 226,000 in the first quarter. And for the year, monthly job creation has averaged just 150,000 vs. 153,000 last year. Both numbers are extremely weak.

But those top-line numbers actually overstate the health of the labor market.

– If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.8% today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.9%. Even if you take into account that the LFP should be declining as America ages, the unemployment rate would be 10.5%.

– The broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes “all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons,”  is 14.9%, up a bit from May.

– The average duration of unemployment ticked up to 39.9 weeks.

– It will take 219,000 net new jobs a month for unemployment rate to be below 8% on Election Day if current participation rate holds steady.

– Job growth during the three-year Obama recovery has averaged just 75,000 a month for a total of 2.7 million. During the first three years of the Reagan Recovery, job growth averaged 273,000 a month for a total of 9.8 million. If you adjust for the larger U.S. population today, the Reagan Recovery averaged 360,000 jobs a month for a three-year total of 13 million jobs.

– The U.S. work force remains shrunken with just 58.6% employed:

None of this should be surprising. The economy grew a bit less than 2% last year, and we averaged about 150,000 new jobs a month. We are growing a bit less than 2% this year, and job growth is averaging about 150,000 jobs a month. And there are few signs the rest of the year will be any better. And given a) how the eurocrisis is AGAIN flaring up, and b) China continues to slow, it sure seems like 2% growth and 8% unemployment is a best-case scenario with plenty of downside risk — for the economy and the Obama campaign.

Obama tells us that the 80,000 jobs created last month (25,000 were mere temp jobs) were "a step in the right direction." A very tiny baby step at best, as the working age population grew by 191,000 in the same month. Moreover, 85,000 went on the disability rolls during the month, fleeing the Obama economy for their only alternative, taxpayer dependency. Another 275,000 applied for disability during the month.

Obama's chief economic policy advisor Alan Krueger actually boasted that private sector jobs have grown for "28 straight months for a total of 4.4 million payroll jobs during that period." But at the same point during the Reagan recovery, the economy had created 9.5 million new jobs.

Krueger thinks we are too stupid to know that job growth is the norm and not the exception for the American economy. In the 62 years from the end of World War II in 1945 until 2008, jobs grew in 86% of the months, or 640 out of 744. His statement is just a further example of the Obama administration's practice of Calculated Deception.

Reagan's recovery produced job growth in 81 out of its first 82 months, with 20 million new jobs created in those first 7 years alone, increasing the civilian work force at the time by 20%. That grew into 50 million new jobs over the entire Reagan 25 year boom from 1982 to 2007. Compare that to the disgrace of Obamanomics. While Obama tries to claim 4.4 million new jobs created, total jobs today are still half a million less than in January 2009 when he entered office. Even George Bush oversaw 52 consecutive months of job growth, including 8 million new jobs created after his 2003 capital gains and dividends tax rate cuts became effective (which Obama is dedicated to reversing).

Krueger also solemnly told the public, "it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report." But as documented July 6 by Bryan Preston for PJMedia, the Obama Administration has said the exact same thing for each of the last 30 months. Do ya think 2 ½ years might constitute a trend?