Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years
Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again
By David Rose
The supposed ‘consensus’ on
man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the
release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for
the past 15 years.
The
figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to
rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the
Thames in the 17th Century.
Based
on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was
issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of
East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend
in world temperatures ended in 1997.
A painting, dated 1684, by Abraham Hondius depicts one of many frost fairs on the River Thames during the mini ice age
Meanwhile, leading climate scientists
yesterday told The Mail on Sunday that, after emitting unusually high
levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading
towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers,
bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing
food.
Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak.
We
are now at what should be the peak of what scientists call ‘Cycle 24’ –
which is why last week’s solar storm resulted in sightings of the
aurora borealis further south than usual. But sunspot numbers are
running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th
Century.
Analysis by
experts at NASA and the University of Arizona – derived from
magnetic-field measurements 120,000 miles beneath the sun’s surface –
suggest that Cycle 25, whose peak is due in 2022, will be a great deal
weaker still.
According to a paper
issued last week by the Met Office, there is a 92 per cent chance that
both Cycle 25 and those taking place in the following decades will be as
weak as, or weaker than, the ‘Dalton minimum’ of 1790 to 1830. In this
period, named after the meteorologist John Dalton, average temperatures
in parts of Europe fell by 2C.
However,
it is also possible that the new solar energy slump could be as deep as
the ‘Maunder minimum’ (after astronomer Edward Maunder), between 1645
and 1715 in the coldest part of the ‘Little Ice Age’ when, as well as
the Thames frost fairs, the canals of Holland froze solid.
Yet, in its paper, the Met Office
claimed that the consequences now would be negligible – because the
impact of the sun on climate is far less than man-made carbon dioxide.
Although the sun’s output is likely to decrease until 2100, ‘This would
only cause a reduction in global temperatures of 0.08C.’ Peter Stott,
one of the authors, said: ‘Our findings suggest a reduction of solar
activity to levels not seen in hundreds of years would be insufficient
to offset the dominant influence of greenhouse gases.’
These findings are fiercely disputed by other solar experts.
‘World
temperatures may end up a lot cooler than now for 50 years or more,’
said Henrik Svensmark, director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research
at Denmark’s National Space Institute. ‘It will take a long battle to
convince some climate scientists that the sun is important. It may well
be that the sun is going to demonstrate this on its own, without the
need for their help.’
He
pointed out that, in claiming the effect of the solar minimum would be
small, the Met Office was relying on the same computer models that are
being undermined by the current pause in global-warming.
CO2
levels have continued to rise without interruption and, in 2007, the
Met Office claimed that global warming was about to ‘come roaring back’.
It said that between 2004 and 2014 there would be an overall increase
of 0.3C. In 2009, it predicted that at least three of the years 2009 to
2014 would break the previous temperature record set in 1998.
So far there is no sign of any of this happening. But yesterday a Met Office spokesman insisted its models were still valid.
‘The ten-year projection remains groundbreaking science. The period for the original projection is not over yet,’ he said.
Dr
Nicola Scafetta, of Duke University in North Carolina, is the author of
several papers that argue the Met Office climate models show there
should have been ‘steady warming from 2000 until now’.
‘If
temperatures continue to stay flat or start to cool again, the
divergence between the models and recorded data will eventually become
so great that the whole scientific community will question the current
theories,’ he said.
He
believes that as the Met Office model attaches much greater significance
to CO2 than to the sun, it was bound to conclude that there would not
be cooling. ‘The real issue is whether the model itself is accurate,’ Dr
Scafetta said. Meanwhile, one of America’s most eminent climate
experts, Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology,
said she found the Met Office’s confident prediction of a ‘negligible’
impact difficult to understand.
‘The
responsible thing to do would be to accept the fact that the models may
have severe shortcomings when it comes to the influence of the sun,’
said Professor Curry. As for the warming pause, she said that many
scientists ‘are not surprised’.
She argued it is becoming evident that
factors other than CO2 play an important role in rising or falling
warmth, such as the 60-year water temperature cycles in the Pacific and
Atlantic oceans.
‘They have
insufficiently been appreciated in terms of global climate,’ said Prof
Curry. When both oceans were cold in the past, such as from 1940 to
1970, the climate cooled. The Pacific cycle ‘flipped’ back from warm to
cold mode in 2008 and the Atlantic is also thought likely to flip in the
next few years.
Pal
Brekke, senior adviser at the Norwegian Space Centre, said some
scientists found the importance of water cycles difficult to accept,
because doing so means admitting that the oceans – not CO2 – caused much
of the global warming between 1970 and 1997.
The same goes for the impact of the sun – which was highly active for much of the 20th Century.
‘Nature
is about to carry out a very interesting experiment,’ he said. ‘Ten or
15 years from now, we will be able to determine much better whether the
warming of the late 20th Century really was caused by man-made CO2, or
by natural variability.’
Meanwhile,
since the end of last year, world temperatures have fallen by more than
half a degree, as the cold ‘La Nina’ effect has re-emerged in the South
Pacific.
‘We’re now well
into the second decade of the pause,’ said Benny Peiser, director of the
Global Warming Policy Foundation. ‘If we don’t see convincing evidence
of global warming by 2015, it will start to become clear whether the
models are bunk. And, if they are, the implications for some scientists
could be very serious.’
Global Warming is Dead! Long Live The Next Little Ice Age! God Save The Queen Gaia!
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Global Warming is Dead! Long Live The Next Little Ice Age! God Save The Queen Gaia!
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