Is François Hollande saving the world from Islamic extremists, or his presidency?
By Joseph A Harriss
Behind his back they giggled and called him Flanby. He might
have been popular with the French press, always good for a quick
quip and a laugh, but for them as for most French, François
Hollande was a lightweight, a Socialist Party apparatchik who had
never held even a cabinet post. “Look at him,” sneered Ségolène
Royal, his mistress of 30 years and mother of their four
illegitimate children, after their separation in 2008. “He’s never
done anything!”
Two years ago his most ambitious dream was to find a way to
resolve his separation from her and live quietly with his new love,
Valéry Trierweiller. In any case, the path to the French presidency
was blocked by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, then head of the
International Monetary Fund and leading all the polls to easily
beat Nicolas Sarkozy in the 2012 presidential race. So he really
didn’t mind the jokes about Flanby, a popular gelatinous dessert
pudding.
Then in May 2011 Strauss-Kahn forced himself on a cleaning lady
in a New York hotel and his French political prospects went down in
flames. Hollande suddenly found himself the Socialist Party
candidate against Sarkozy. Running as a self-effacing Monsieur
Normal against the pushy, flamboyant Sarko, he eked out a victory
and became, in effect, France’s Accidental President. But he was
still hard to take seriously. French media delighted in Hollande
bashing, picturing him as soft, compromising, and indecisive.
His poll numbers fell to a record low 35 percent for a new
incumbent of the Elysée Palace as unemployment topped 10 percent
and austerity programs started to bite. Even more painful for
Hollande was that efforts to implement two of his emblematic,
purely ideological campaign pledges met unexpected, embarrassing
opposition. In response to his vow to impose a 75 percent income
tax on revenues over $1.3 million, wealthy French businessmen and
entertainers from Bernard Arnault, France’s richest man and
chairman of the luxury group LVMH, to movie star Gérard Depardieu
were leaving the country in droves. Worse, the supertax was struck
down by the Conseil Constutionnel as violating tax burden equality.
Then came the unexpectedly strong resistance by France’s usually
silent majority, la France profonde, to his proposed law
to permit homosexual marriage and adoption. In its hundreds of
thousands it rose up and bellowed its refusal to see Christian
family values vitiated.
It was just then that came the surprise—and surprising—decision
to fly to the aid of poor, besieged Mali. (Interestingly, it was
announced the very weekend of the huge Paris demonstration against
homosexual marriage, neatly pre-empting most media attention.)
Attacks by Islamic extremists in the north of the country had been
going on for months, but suddenly Hollande found it extremely
urgent. France had no choice but to defend Western
Civilization.
The sudden lurch into war by an unpopular president was
reminiscent of Nicolas Sarkozy’s decision in March 2011 to help
Libyan rebels by bombing his former friend Muammar Gaddafi. His
numbers in the 20s, he declared that “France has decided to play
its part in history… It’s our duty.” It worked. As an admiring
Sarkozy aide said, “He was on the ropes, and suddenly he has the
whole world following his lead.” Diverting hostile public attention
with a military escapade is the oldest trick in the books for
faltering heads of state.
It might yet work for Hollande, and we can only hope it will
work for Mali. But so far, few countries have felt sufficiently
convinced of the threat to join France in any important way in this
feat of arms.
Its European neighbors are all behind it. Way behind. Its great
and good friend Germany, for example, sympathized with Mali’s
predicament but quickly ruled out sending troop, though it did
declare this week that it will repatriate all 374 tons of gold it
had stored in Paris. The so-called European Union, which has long
trumpeted the need for a defense dimension for its 27 members,
promised to think hard about a military training mission in Mali.
Oh, and it would also hold a meeting of its Foreign Affairs
Council. Britain coughed up a military transport plane or two, tiny
Belgium committed to two helicopters and two transports. Canada
sent all of a C-17 transport with 35 personnel. NATO, always on the
lookout for a new mission to justify its post-Cold War existence,
said it had had no discussions about Mali and was not involved.
In other words, François Hollande launched this perilous,
ill-defined operation without putting together an operational
coalition, or even serious prior consultation with allies. As for
support from the U.S., both the State and Defense departments
confirmed that France had made a number of requests, including help
with information sharing, airlift, and aerial refueling. But didn’t
France, which has a large and active embassy in Washington, know
that the U.S. has a policy of not aiding Mali because the present
government seized power in a coup? As Peter Pham, director of the
Africa Center at the Atlantic Council, told the Financial
Times, “The U.S. does not want to tell an ally to stand down,
but by starting an operation they might not be able to finish, the
French risk exacerbating the crisis.”
That leaves France with military support from the puny Economic
Community of West African States (ECOWAS). There is supposed to be
an African force of some 3,300 soldiers on the way. When they
finally report for duty, they will have to be trained to work with
Malian and French forces. (A senior French security official told
the Washington Post that the African troops were far from
ready; many had not even been selected by their governments.)
I will leave analysis of the African side of the operation to
others, notably my AmSpec colleague Roger Kaplan. But
whatever the military results at this point, it is working for
Hollande. Fully 75 percent of those polled approved it. As one of
his cabinet cheerleaders, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius,
described the decisive moment on primetime TV, “I saw him sign the
order for the attack. And I can tell you, his hand didn’t shake.”
Observers are comparing the impact on his image with that of Barack
Obama’s raid on Osama bin Laden. “Finally president!” applauded one
Paris newspaper. “Finished the hesitant and nonchalant François
Hollande of the first months of his term.” Summed up one
commentator, “It changes his image instantly.”
That could change again if France fails to attain its ambitious
stated goals of stopping the rebel advance, rooting them out of
their vast desert stronghold, stabilizing Mali, and restoring its
territorial integrity. The Defense Ministry says it will deploy a
total of 2,500 troops, a small number compared with the estimated
10,000 to 12,000 rebels facing them. Already the rebels are closer
to Bamako, the capital where some 6,000 French expatriates live,
than they were before the French attack. Public enthusiasm for the
operation will likely moderate when the inevitable French
casualties begin to be reported.
Concern is also rising over reprisals within France itself.
Security has been tightened at airports, train stations, department
stores, and other public venues, with 64 percent of French worried
that the danger of terrorist attacks has increased. An Islamic
rebel leader, Oumar Ould Hamaha, said on a French radio station
that France “has fallen into a trap much more dangerous than Iraq,
Afghanistan or Somalia.” It had “opened the gates of hell for all
the French.”
As with all puddings, the proof of this one will be in the
tasting.
Published as: Flanby's War
Published as: Flanby's War
*************************************
SoRo: There is something seriously wrong with the world when a French Socialist decides he must "go it alone" against Islamists to "save Western civilisation."
Back when Hollande was elected in May 2012, I said that, by the end of the year, his approval ratings would be in the 30s and the people would be in the streets. Both predictions came true.
Now, one wonders if he is really "fighting the good cause" or just trying to divert the attention of traditional Frenchmen away from the sour economic news because he is certainly not rallying a critical part of his base...the Muslim community, without whose support, he would not have been elected. In fact, Muslims were out in force at the last week-end with traditionalists fighting SSM and homosexual adoption.
I doubt anyone - neither those that voted for him nor those that voted against him - would have foreseen Rambeaux. Rambeaux is like this:
or this...
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