M2RB: Blondie
One way or another I'm gonna getcha
One way or another I'm gonna lose ya
I'm gonna give you the slip or another
I'm gonna lose ya, I'm gonna trick ya, I'll trick ya
One way or another I'm gonna lose ya
I'm gonna trick ya trick ya trick ya trick ya
One way or another I'm gonna lose ya
I'm gonna give you the slip
I'm gonna give you the slip or another
I'm gonna lose ya, I'm gonna trick ya, I'll trick ya
One way or another I'm gonna lose ya
I'm gonna trick ya trick ya trick ya trick ya
One way or another I'm gonna lose ya
I'm gonna give you the slip
By James Pethokoukis
Based
on final exit polls, Greece’s New Democracy party will — narrowly — be
the leading vote getter in today’s big elections in Greece, edging out
left-wing coalition Syriza.
Again,
this means the Status Quo party (accept the bailout and its condition with some
tweaks) has defeated the Stop the Austerity Party (reject the bailout
conditions and dare the EU to stop the money) and will have a parliamentary
majority. That, of course, if ND successfully enters into a coalition
with Pasok , the socialist party.
Here
is the breakdown based on those exit poll results:
–
New Democracy 127 Seats
–
Syriza Party 72 Seats
–
Pasok 32
So
a New Democracy- Pasok coalition, which is what’s expected, would get 159
Seats in 300-seat parliament.
Financial
markets should be mildly reassured by this since a Syriza victory would have
accelerated the path to default. (Again, assuming a) exit polls are correct,
and b) the conservative ND and Pasok can come to terms.)
But
default and a euro departure is likely the final destination, no matter what.
1.
The new Greek government may well get some modest concessions from the troika (the European
Commission, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Central Bank).
But that will hardly be enough, says Citigroup:
While it may be likely that a modified
agreement can be found, in our view, any new Greek government, regardless of
its composition, will struggle with implementation challenges related to the
imposition of further austerity measures demanded by the Troika in exchange for
further assistance, and is unlikely to have the political will or capacity to
implement unpopular structural reforms, especially of Greece’s public sector,
and carry out privatisations that are planned to yield up to €50bn by 2017. We
therefore consider it likely that a new troika deal would ultimately fall apart
and lead to Grexit.
2.
And this is why minor adjustments just won’t matter. During the past three
years, Greece’s GDP has contracted by 16%. Unemployment has risen to 22%. The
economy is on track to shrink another 7% this year. As AEI’s Demond Lachman describes things,
“Greece’s economy is in a state of true collapse.”
And here is what the new Greek prime minister faces:
The new Greek prime
minister will find that, as a result of a collapsing economy, Greece’s public
finances are in much worse shape than the IMF had foreseen earlier this year.
This is reflected in declining tax receipts and in mushrooming government
payment arrears that are now in excess of 90 days.
He will also soon
find that, as a condition for its next loan disbursement, the IMF will be
asking Greece to identify and obtain parliamentary approval for 5.5 percentage
points of GDP in public spending cuts for 2013 and 2014.
And he will know full
well that, with more than 60 percent of the Greek electorate vehemently opposed
to further fiscal austerity, he will risk social anarchy if he persists in
getting parliament to approve further IMF-mandated hair shirt fiscal austerity.
3.
Greece will probably have to leave the euro in September or December. Again,
Citi:
We doubt whether
Greece will be able to deliver on the austerity-lite revision of the MoU that
is likely following a favourable outcome of the elections. We also don’t think
it likely that Greece will be able to deliver on the targeted privatisations
and structural reforms. With conditionality violated in all three key
dimensions, we believe it is therefore likely that the plug will be pulled by
the troika on further funding of the Greek sovereign, either following the
September assessment or, more likely, following the December assessment.
A possible trigger
would be the determination by the IMF following the first or second assessment,
that it cannot disburse its next installment due under the current programme
because the Greek programme is not fully funded for 12 months after the
assessment. In that case some of the smaller core euro area member states that
have made their contributions to the Greek EFSF programme conditional on the
IMF disbursing would probably drop out too. The Greek sovereign would then be
forced to default. Then the ECB would stop funding the Greek banks through the
Eurosystem and through the Greek ELA.
With neither the
Greek sovereign nor the Greek banks having access to the lender of last resort,
we believe Greece would probably leave the eurozone, as some liquidity through
the issuance of New Drachma is better than no liquidity.
Bottom
line: Greece
is still likely headed for the exits this year. The economy is just too sickly
to meet the bailout requirements, and Germany is highly unlikely to ease them
enough to make a difference.
Although
a ND-Pasok coalition should give financial markets a brief breather, it might
be as brief as it was after the $100 billion bailout of Spain. Uncertainty will
drive the EU into a deeper recession, and will keep U.S. markets and companies
on edge. And if ND and Pasok cannot come to terms, the Grexit could come (even)
sooner rather than later.
One Way Or Another - Blondie
One way or another I'm gonna find ya
I'm gonna getcha getcha getcha getcha
One way or another I'm gonna win ya
I'm gonna getcha getcha getcha getcha
One way or another I'm gonna see ya
I'm gonna meetcha meetcha meetcha meetcha
One day, maybe next week
I'm gonna meetcha, I'm gonna meetcha, I'll meetcha
I will drive past your house
And if the lights are all down
I'll see who's around
One way or another I'm gonna find ya
I'm gonna getcha getcha getcha getcha
One way or another I'm gonna win ya
I'll getcha, I'll getcha
One way or another I'm gonna see ya
I'm gonna meetcha meetcha meetcha meetcha
One day, maybe next week
I'm gonna meetcha, I'll meetcha
And if the lights are all out
I'll follow your bus downtown
See who's hanging out
One way or another I'm gonna lose ya
I'm gonna give you the slip, a slip of the lip or another
I'm gonna lose ya, I'm gonna trick ya, I'll trick ya
One way or another I'm gonna lose ya
I'm gonna trick ya trick ya trick ya trick ya
One way or another I'm gonna lose ya
I'm gonna give you the slip
I'll walk down the mall
Stand over by the wall
Where I can see it all
Find out who ya call
Lead you to the supermarket checkout
Some specials and rat food, get lost in the crowd
One way or another I'm gonna getcha, I'll getcha, I'll getcha getcha getcha getcha
(Where I can see it all, find out who ya call)
One way or another I'm gonna getcha, I'll getcha, I'll getcha getcha getcha getcha
(Where I can see it all, find out who ya call)
One way or another I'm gonna getcha, I'll getcha, I'll getcha getcha getcha getcha
(Where I can see it all, find out who ya call)
I'm gonna getcha getcha getcha getcha
One way or another I'm gonna win ya
I'm gonna getcha getcha getcha getcha
One way or another I'm gonna see ya
I'm gonna meetcha meetcha meetcha meetcha
One day, maybe next week
I'm gonna meetcha, I'm gonna meetcha, I'll meetcha
I will drive past your house
And if the lights are all down
I'll see who's around
One way or another I'm gonna find ya
I'm gonna getcha getcha getcha getcha
One way or another I'm gonna win ya
I'll getcha, I'll getcha
One way or another I'm gonna see ya
I'm gonna meetcha meetcha meetcha meetcha
One day, maybe next week
I'm gonna meetcha, I'll meetcha
And if the lights are all out
I'll follow your bus downtown
See who's hanging out
One way or another I'm gonna lose ya
I'm gonna give you the slip, a slip of the lip or another
I'm gonna lose ya, I'm gonna trick ya, I'll trick ya
One way or another I'm gonna lose ya
I'm gonna trick ya trick ya trick ya trick ya
One way or another I'm gonna lose ya
I'm gonna give you the slip
I'll walk down the mall
Stand over by the wall
Where I can see it all
Find out who ya call
Lead you to the supermarket checkout
Some specials and rat food, get lost in the crowd
One way or another I'm gonna getcha, I'll getcha, I'll getcha getcha getcha getcha
(Where I can see it all, find out who ya call)
One way or another I'm gonna getcha, I'll getcha, I'll getcha getcha getcha getcha
(Where I can see it all, find out who ya call)
One way or another I'm gonna getcha, I'll getcha, I'll getcha getcha getcha getcha
(Where I can see it all, find out who ya call)
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