The September Jobs Report: The Big Lie

  

First things first, in February 2009, there were 141.748 million Americans employed in the United States and the labour force participation rate was 65.6%.  In September 2012, 140.025 million Americans were employed and the labour force participation rate had fallen to 63.6%.  Between February 2009 and September 2012, the civilian non-institutional population grew by 8.859 million adults; yet, 1.723 million fewer Americans were working.  In the last year alone, 1.1 million Americans left the work force.

Today's expected -- given the massacre in Denver and next month's election -- "unexpected" drop in the unemployment rate requires a willing suspension of disbelief.  The "spontaneous uprising" in hiring of a whole 114,000 jobs allegedly caused a drop in the U-3 rate of 0.3%.  In August, the US economy added 96,000 and the unemployment rate went from 8.3% to 8.1%.  In July, the US economy added 163,000 jobs and the unemployment rate went up to 8.3% from 8.2% in June when only 80,000 jobs were created.  Go figure.

Somehow...in a economy growing at a miserly 1.3%...873,000 people managed to find jobs.  Of course, 582,000 jobs were part-time jobs, which the Left used to say weren't "real jobs."  The addition of 873,000 jobs, which, according to CNBC, is “the highest one-month jump in 29 years.”  That would have been in November, 1983...when the GDP was 8.5%.  Once again, the annualised GDP rate for Q2 in 2012 was 1.3%.
 

If the labour force participation rate was constant, the U-3 rate would be 10.7%.  

By the way, at a rate of adding 114,000 jobs per month, we wouldn't return to full employment until 2025.   114,000 jobs per month would be great...if we were living in the late 1950s.  We need twice that many just to maintain current employment.  A robustly growing economy requires job creation in the range of 300,000+.  Take a look at the number of jobs that were being created during the Reagan Recovery when GDP was 7-8%.

Finally, and before we turn to the report data, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke just embarked on QE-Infinity because:

 "If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate...We will be looking for the sort of broad-based growth in jobs and economic activity that GENERALLY SIGNAL SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT IN LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS AND DECLINING UNEMPLOYMENT.  The U.S. unemployment rate has stayed above 8 percent for 43 consecutive months - the longest such period since the Great Depression of the 1930s.  Although the unemployment rate in August fell to 8.1% from July's 8.3%, THE DROP OCCURRED FOR ALL THE WRONG REASONS -- 368,000 FEWER AMERICANS WERE LOOKING FOR WORK AND THE LABOUR PARTICIPATION RATE FELL FROM 63.7% TO 63.5% -- ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE SEPTEMBER 1981. If labour participation had remained at July levels, the unemployment rate actually would have risen.  The Federal Reserve is, of course, well aware that THE UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION IS FAR, FAR WORSE THAN WHAT IS BEING CAPTURED IN THE OFFICIAL HEADLINE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE of 8.1%. THE GOVERNMENT KNOWS FULL WELL THAT THE TRUE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, ONCE WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION RATE MANIPULATIONS ARE NETTED OUT, IS CLOSER TO 19%."

If the employment picture was truly improving, Ben Bernanke would never have embarked onto the uncharted waters of QE-Infinity.  Well, I shouldn't say the waters are uncharted as the ships of the states of Weimar Germany, Mugabe's Zimbabwe, Yugoslavia, Argentina, and others have been destroyed on the shoals of debt monetisation.

U-6, which counts part-timers, who want full-time work, and the discouraged, is 14.7% and has remained unchanged.  If the underemployed (people working a jobs below their skill-sets) are included, the U-6 hits the high teens or low twenties.  All combined, there are about 23 million Americans unemployed or underemployed.

Among the major worker groups:

Nationally, the U-3 rate for whites was 6.8%, a decrease from 7.2% in August.  The unemployment rate for adult white men dropped to 6.2% from 6.3% in August, for adult white women, it decreased from 6.9% in August to 6.3 % in September, and unemployment amongst white teenagers increased from, 22.0% to 20.8%.

Nationally, the U-3 rate for blacks is 13.5%, a decrease from 14.5% in September. The unemployment rate for adult black men dropped to 13.5% from 13.8% in August, unemployment rate for black women decreased to 11.5% -- down from 13.2% in August, and black teenaged unemployment decreased to 38.1% - down from  38.8% in August.

Nationally, the U-3 rate for Hispanics was 9.4% in September down from 10.1% in August.  The unemployment rate for Hispanic men decreased from 8.1% in August to 7.6% in September, the unemployment rate for Hispanic women decreased to 9.8% (10.3% in August), and the Hispanic teenage unemployment rate finally dropped from its stagnant (and unacceptably high) 29.0% to 27.8% in September.

 

The unemployment rate for Asians 4.8%, an decrease from 5.9% in August. 

In February 2009, there were 2.647 million Americans, who had been unemployed for a period of longer than 27 weeks, and the percentage of the unemployed who were unemployed for a period of more than 27 weeks was 22.4%.

In September 2012, there were 4.844 million Americans, who had been unemployed for a period of longer than 27 weeks, and the percentage of the unemployed who were unemployed for a period of more than 27 weeks was 40.1%. 

In other words, there were 2.197 million more workers suffering long-term unemployment of 27 weeks or more in September 2012, and a 79.018% increase in the percentage of long-term unemployment than when Obama started “working to put the middle class back to work” in February, 2009.

02.09: 2.647 million

09.12: 4.844 million

That’s a 79.018% increase in the number of Americans, who have been unemployed for an average of 27 weeks or more.

BUT, the unemployment rate for government workers went down to 4.3% as a result of 934,000 new hires.

Good news, good news, good news! /s

Who will rid us of this meddlesome priest?

OK, onto the business of the day.....

I ran the numbers comparing January, 2009, to September, 2012.  Also, because of the "unexpected" report this morning, I have left up August's numbers and compared them to September's data.

January 2009:

Civilian non-institution population:  234.739m

Civilian labour force:  153.716m

Employed:  142.099m

Employment-population ratio: 61.3

Unemployed:  11.616m

Not in labour force:  81.023m

Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:  5.62m

Part-time, but want full-time job:  8.038m

Participation Rate:  65.5%

Average Weeks Unemployed:  19.8

Unemployment rate:  7.6%

August 2012:

Civilian non-institutional population:  243.566 m

Civilian labour force:  154.645m

Employed:  142.101m

Employment-population ratio:   58.3

Unemployed:  12.544m

Not in labour force:  88.921m

Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:  6.929m

Part-time, but want full-time job:  10.538m

Participation rate:  63.5%

Average Weeks Unemployed:  39.2

Unemployment rate:  8.1%

September 2012:

Civilian non-institutional population:  243.772 m

Civilian labour force:  155.063m

Employed:  142.974m

Employment-population ratio:   58.7

Unemployed:  12.088m

Not in labour force:  88.710m

Not in the labour force, but who want a job now: 6.427m

Part-time, but want full-time job:  16.708m

Participation rate:  63.6%

Average Weeks Unemployed:  40.1

Unemployment rate:  7.8%

Percentage Change from Jan 2009 to Sept 2012 :

Civilian non-institutional population:  +3.848% increase

Civilian labour force:  +0.876% increase

Employed:  +0.616% increase

Employment-population ratio:  -4.241% decrease

Unemployed:   +4.063% increase

Not in labour force:   +9.487% increase

Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:   +14.359% increase

Part-time, but want full-time job:   +107.863% increase

Participation rate:  -2.901% decrease

Average Weeks Unemployed:  +102.525% increase

Unemployment rate:  +2.632% increase

Percentage Change from Aug 2012 to Sept 2012 :

Civilian non-institutional population:  +0.085% increase

Civilian labour force:  +0.27% increase

Employed:  +0.614% increase

Employment-population ratio:  +0.686% decrease

Unemployed:   -3.635% decrease

Not in labour force:   -0.237% decrease

Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:  -7.245% decrease

Part-time, but want full-time job:   +58.55% increase

Participation rate:  +0.157% increase

Average Weeks Unemployed:  +2.296% increase

Unemployment rate:  -3.704% decrease

I think that this table (Table A-11) is interesting...

582,000 jobs were part-time jobs.

Hey!  Did someone say "War on Women"???  I've got ya a "War on Women."   Check it out:

In January 2009, the number of women employed was:  67.007m

In September 2012, the number of women employed was:  64.670m

In January 2009, the number of unemployed women was:  4.845m

In September 2012, the number of unemployed women was:  5.111m

The percentage change in the number of women employed between January 2009 and September 2012 has been a DECREASE of 3.488%.

The percentage change in the number of women unemployed between January 2009 and September 2012 has been an INCREASE of 5.49%.

 "Our growth rate is measly [so what did you expect?]"

- Austan Goolsbee, former Obama economic adviser

Measly growth rate?  Yeah, I guess you could call it that.  **eyeroll**  But, can we at least get it to hurry up so that we can get rid of this imbecile?  Seriously.  Who in their bloody mind would hire and expand with Black Jesus (h/t David Axelrod) as CEO of the country?