M2RB: Tammy Wynette
By
Clive Crook
British Prime Minister David Cameron is steeling himself for a defeat
at this week's summit of European Union leaders in Ypres. Until
recently, he expected to get his way over blocking the appointment of
Jean-Claude Juncker as the next head of the European Commission. He dug
himself in on that assumption. He now seems likely to be outvoted.
Beyond the political embarrassment, here's why it matters: If the Tories win the next election, Cameron has promised Britain a vote
on whether to stay in the EU. The quarrel over Juncker will be long
past by then, but it will stand as a memorable instance of British
frustration with the European project. Conceivably, it could make the
difference in the referendum.
Which only underlines how unwise
Cameron was to make the appointment such a big deal. In case you've
forgotten (and it's a forgivable error), he wants the U.K. to stay in
the EU, though on new terms. Now his failed maneuverings over Juncker
will just confirm that Europe isn't much interested in what Britain wants, proving Cameron's impotence and how little British preferences count.
The Juncker affair is only partly Cameron's fault. Although he picks
the wrong fights and his manner is grating, there's a deeper problem
that the other EU governments seem incapable of recognizing. Juncker
illustrates it perfectly. Cameron was tactically inept, but he's right on the merits of the appointment: Juncker's accession would move the EU two strides further in the wrong direction.
First, Juncker is a federalist, a believer in the "ever closer union"
inscribed in EU treaties. As head of the European Commission -- the
union's powerful executive branch -- he'll be in a good spot to advance
that purpose. He'll be deaf to the idea that Europe needs more
"subsidiarity" (the principle that powers that don't need to be
centralized shouldn't be) and hence to Britain's main preoccupation.
Second, his appointment would be a coup for the European Parliament.
Under current rules, national governments decide who leads the
commission, and the understanding has been that this choice is made by
consensus (that is, unanimously). The parliament, which wants Juncker,
has no more than an advisory role. Yet it's being allowed to insist on
Juncker, despite the misgivings of other leaders, and even though that
overrides Britain's tacit veto.
It's a perfect example of the
very syndrome that infuriates Brits: the unlegislated drift of power
from national governments to EU institutions. And it comes -- in the
name of EU democracy, mind you -- after EU-wide elections in which parties opposed to that drift made great gains.
As a result, Cameron's difficulties over Europe are rapidly
compounding. His position requires him to argue that Europe is
reformable; Europe is telling the world it isn't. How many of these
rebuffs can Cameron absorb before he has to acknowledge that the U.K.'s
choice is not between a new, less centralized union and divorce, but
between divorce and the union as it is (only more so)? In effect, he's
already cast aside the argument that Britain has a compelling interest
in remaining an EU member on almost any terms. If he believed that, he
wouldn't have promised a referendum in the first place.
Will the
U.K. move next to a more serious discussion of a British exit from the
EU? Opinions are expressed on both sides, of course, but there's no real
discussion. The loudest voices insist that Britain must quit to save
its democracy -- or that leaving would cause such colossal economic harm
that the idea is simply nuts. As yet, there's been no grappling with
the trade-offs, no weighing of pros and cons. This ought to change. Perhaps it now will.
The British, it seems fair to say, will never feel comfortable in the
Europe envisaged by Juncker and his backers. And the kind of Europe in
which they would feel at home is not what other governments appear to
want, regardless of what their voters might prefer. Perhaps this should
have been clear long ago; at any rate, it gets clearer all the time. A
friendly dissolution begins to look more attractive -- and in the
interests of all the partners.
That conversation certainly isn't
what Cameron wanted. Thanks to his own miscalculations and the obduracy
of his EU counterparts, it's where Europe may be heading.
No comments:
Post a Comment