Roanoke College surveyed likely voters in Virginia and released its results this morning showing Romney with a 5-point advantage over Obama (49/44) and Allen with a 5-point advantage of Kaine (47/42). The D/R/I is 35/31/30, which compares to 39/33/27 in 2008 and 33/37/30 in 2009. This also seems to undersample Republicans in relation to the last two elections. We'll see whether this model pans out, but don't be surprised to see something closer to 2009 than 2008.
* R is +26 with Independents.
* R has a +28 advantage with white voters (over 60%, which hasn't been seen since 1984 Reagan landslide).
* O favourable/unfavourable is unchanged +2 (48/46) since last month.
* R f/u is +10 (49/39)and is up significantly from last month.
* Paul Ryan's fav/unfav is +9 (48/39).
* Joe Biden's f/u is -5 (42/47).
* R is +12 on unemployment (53% - 41%)
* R is +4 on taxes (48% - 44%), but is within MOE.
* R is +4 on immigration (46% - 42%)
* R is +19 on dealing with the budget deficit (55%-36%)
* O is +6 on foreign policy (49% - 43%).
* O is +4 on Medicare (48% - 44%), but is within MOE.
* R & O are statistically tied on Social Security (45/44).
* R & O are tied on health care (47/47).
* O still leads on who is perceived to understand Virginians better (56/53), but is within MOE.
* R is +4 on stronger leader (48/44), but is within MOE.
* 51% say economy is most important issue.
* 9% say jobs/unemployment.
* 4% say budget deficit.
* 6% say women's issues/abortion.
* 58% say country is on wrong track (38% right track).
* Voters deciding after debates started choose R by +18.
* R has +13 advantage with men (52/39).
* R has a +18 advantage with the 55-64 age group (55/37).
* R has a +25 advantage with the 65+ age group (61/36).
* O has a +1 advantage with women (48/47), but is within the MOE.
* O has a +27 advantage with the 18-34 age group (55/28).
* O has a +1 advantage with crossover (9/8), but is within the MOE.
* Both pull their party members within MOE (R: 95, O: 94).
* O won 92% of the African-American vote in 2008. He is attracting 89% in 2012.
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