Pictures Of The Day: A Swing And A Very Big Miss

h/t  James Pethokoukis

Swing and a miss. A big miss. A really big miss.

[It was predicted that the economy would have added 220,000 in March.  It only added 120,000 with an increase in the unemployed labour force to 88 million Americans, the largest in history.

More from Mr Pethokoukis:

But the true measure of U.S. unemployment is far worse:

1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.8% today down from last month—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.9%.

2. But what if you take into the account the aging of the Baby Boomers, which means the labor force participation (LFP) rate should be trending lower. Indeed, it has been doing just that since 2000. Before the Great Recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted what the LFP would be in 2012, assuming such demographic changes. Using that number, the real unemployment rate would be 10.5%.

3. Of course, the LFP rate usually falls during recessions. Yet even if you discount for that and the aging issue, the real unemployment rate would be 9.4%.

4. Then there’s the broader, U-6 measure of unemployment which includes the discouraged plus part-timers who wish they had full time work. That unemployment rate, perhaps the truest measure of the labor market’s health, is still a sky-high 14.5%.

5. The employment-population ratio dipped to 58.5% vs. 61% in December 2008. An historically low level of the U.S. population is actually working.

6. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or longer) account for 42.5% of the unemployment. That number is basically stuck. It was the same, for instance, in August 2010 and last December.

Bottom line: The economy is adding jobs but not very quickly, which is to be expected given GDP growth of around 2% or so. A Great Recovery after the Great Recession? More like the Great Stagnation …


Sophie:  I ran the numbers comparing January, 2009, to March, 2012:

 Jan. 2009:

Civilian labour force:  153,716m
Employed:  142,099m
Unemployed:  11,616m
Not in labour force:  81,023m
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:  5,682m
Participation Rate:  65.5%
Average Weeks Unemployed:  19.8
Unemployment rate:  7.6%

March 2012

Civilian labour force:  154,707m
Employed:  142,034m
Unemployed:  12,673m
Not in labour force:  87,897m
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:   6,299m
Participation rate:  63.8%
Average Weeks Unemployed:  39.4
Unemployment rate:  8.2%

Change:

Civilian labour force:  + .64%
Employed:  - 4.58%
Unemployed:  + 8.34%
Not in labour force:  + 7.82%
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now:   +10.86%
Participation rate:  - 2.67%
Average Weeks Unemployed:  + 98.99%
Unemployment rate:  + 7.31%


Hope.  Change.  Chronic unemployment.