M2RB: Guns 'n Roses
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The Republicans have greatly improved their absentee ballot request and return numbers. In contrast, Democrats are underperforming in a substantial numbers of counties compared to their effort in 2008. McCain actually won Ohio on Election Day; nevertheless, Obama won the state and its electoral votes because of the votes he
had already banked through early voting. It is quite apparent from the data gathered from the Secretary of State's office and local election boards that his bank will not be nearly as full as it was 4 years ago.
Cuyahoga County gave Obama a 258,542 vote victory margin. Of that 258,542, 130,000 votes came from absentee ballots. Cuyahoga was critical to Obama's victory. As of today, he is running at 61.5% of what he did in Cuyahoga in 2008 (Democrats — have returned 130,175 absentee ballots, the Republicans have returned 50,667, and the differential is 79,508). Obama cannot afford to be 80,000 votes off in Cuyahoga County this year because he is getting killed in other counties where some roles have reversed in addition to Democrats being off 50%.
Cuyahoga County gave Obama a 258,542 vote victory margin. Of that 258,542, 130,000 votes came from absentee ballots. Cuyahoga was critical to Obama's victory. As of today, he is running at 61.5% of what he did in Cuyahoga in 2008 (Democrats — have returned 130,175 absentee ballots, the Republicans have returned 50,667, and the differential is 79,508). Obama cannot afford to be 80,000 votes off in Cuyahoga County this year because he is getting killed in other counties where some roles have reversed in addition to Democrats being off 50%.
In 2008, 1,386,683 absentee ballots were requested. 477,388 were returned by Democrats. 260,416 were returned by Republicans.
2008: D = 34.43% R = 18.78%
In 2012, 1,372,336 absentee ballots were requested. 390,691 (56.7%) were returned by Democrats. 298,403 (43.3%) were returned by Republicans.
2012: D = 28.47% R = 21.74%
The counties below, with the exception of Lake, have seen a decrease in the number of registered voters after ineligible voters, duplicate registrations, and movers were struck from the rolls earlier this year. With the exodus of thousands from the urban areas to the suburbs and exurbs, the Democratic strongholds in urban areas have lost considerable numbers of votes and Democratic votes that have moved are diluted by the overwhelming Republican advantage in those areas.
Some counties are only undated through the 4th.
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland):
2008 Cuyahoga County final vote (all) tally:
Obama: 458,422 – 69.05%
McCain: 199,880 – 30.11%%
Differential: 38.94%
2008:
Absentee ballots requested: 231,500
AB returned: 154,961 (66.9%)
Democrats returned: 119,893 (77.4%)
Republicans returned: 35,068 (22.6%)
In 2008, 51% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 20% of Republicans did.
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 291,254
AB returned: 198,497 (68.2%)
Democrats returned: 145,690 (73.4%)
Republicans returned: 52,807 (26.6%)
In 2012 so far, 50% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 19% of Republicans have.
15.6% of the total votes cast for Obama in 2008 came from Cuyahoga County. Cuyahoga County has 208,207 fewer total registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008. The county has lost 48,872 Democrat-registered voters and 194,199 independent-registered voters. There has been a surprising gain of 34,864 Republican voters in Cuyahoga since the 2008 election.
Obama had a 54.8%-point lead over McCain in 2008. Today, Obama has a 46.8%-point lead over Romney.
15.6% of the total votes cast for Obama in 2008 came from Cuyahoga County. Cuyahoga County has 208,207 fewer total registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008. The county has lost 48,872 Democrat-registered voters and 194,199 independent-registered voters. There has been a surprising gain of 34,864 Republican voters in Cuyahoga since the 2008 election.
Obama had a 54.8%-point lead over McCain in 2008. Today, Obama has a 46.8%-point lead over Romney.
Hamilton County (Cincinnati):
2008 Hamilton County final vote (all) tally:
Obama: 225,213 – 53.14%
McCain: 195,530 – 46.14%
Differential: 7.00%
2008:
Absentee ballots requested: 117,706
AB returned: 44,398
Democrats returned: 16,763 (41.5%)
Republicans returned: 23,677 (58.5%)
In 2008, 14% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 20% of Republicans did.
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 118,647
AB returned: 44,721 (38%)
Democrats returned: 18,119 (40.52%)
Republicans returned: 26,602 (59.48%)
In 2012, 15% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. Thus far, 23% of Republicans have.
McCain had a 17%-point lead over Obama in 2008. Today, Romney has 18.96%-lead over Obama.
Franklin County (Columbus):
2008 Franklin County final vote (all) tally:
Obama: 334,709 – 59.96%
McCain: 218,486 – 39.14%
Differential: 20.82%
2008:
Absentee ballots requested: 274,610
AB returned: 88,445 (32%)
Democrats returned: 48,111 (54.4%)
Republicans returned: 40,334 (45.6%)
In 2008, 18% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 15% of Republicans did.
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 233,433
AB returned: 71,190 (30.5%)
Democrats returned: 34,664 (48.69%)
Republicans returned: 36,526 (51.31%)
In 2012, 15% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. Thus far, 17% of Republicans have.
In Franklin County, Democrats have collapsed. Republicans have returned a majority of
the ballots. Finally, the two parties have flipped positions on returns
as a percentage of absentee ballots requested from those in 2008.
Obama had a 8.8%-point lead over McCain in 2008. Today, Romney has a 2.62%-point lead over Obama.
Obama had a 8.8%-point lead over McCain in 2008. Today, Romney has a 2.62%-point lead over Obama.
Lucas County (Toledo):
2008 Lucas County final vote (all) tally:
Obama: 142,852 -
64.80%
McCain: 73,706 - 33.43%
Differential: 31.37%
2008:
Absentee ballots requested: 69,166
AB returned: 45,073 (65.2%)
Democrats returned: 34,824 (77.3%)
Republicans returned: 10,249 (22.7%)
In 2008, 50% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 15% of Republicans did.
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 62,969
AB returned: 40,029 (70%)
Democrats returned: 29,148 (72.81%)
Republicans returned: 10,881 (27.2%)
In 2012, 46% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 19% of Republicans did.
Obama had a 54.6%-point lead over McCain's 22.7% in 2008. Today, Obama has a 45.61%-point lead over Romney.
Obama had a 54.6%-point lead over McCain's 22.7% in 2008. Today, Obama has a 45.61%-point lead over Romney.
Montgomery County (Dayton):
2008 Montgomery County final vote (all) tally:
Obama: 145,997 - 52.42%
McCain: 128,679 - 46.2%
Differential: 6.22%
2008:
Absentee ballots requested: 76,469
AB returned: 44,598 (58.3%)
Democrats returned: 33,212 (74.5%)
Republicans returned: 11,386 (24.5%)
In 2008, 38% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 26% of Republicans did.
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 79,307
AB returned: 49,956 (62.99%)
Democrats returned: 31,404 (62.86%)
Republicans returned: 18,552 (37.14%)
In 2012, 39% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a
percentage of the absentee ballots requested. Thus far, 25% of
Republicans have.
Obama had a 50%-point lead over McCain's 24.5% in 2008. Today, Obama has a 25.72%-point lead over Romney.
Obama had a 50%-point lead over McCain's 24.5% in 2008. Today, Obama has a 25.72%-point lead over Romney.
Summit County (Akron):
2008 Summit County final vote (all) tally:
Obama: 160,858 - 57.93%
McCain: 113,284 - 40.8%
Differential: 17.13%
2008:
Absentee ballots requested: 92,941
AB returned: 56,381 (61%)
Democrats returned: 43,524 (71.2%)
Republicans returned: 12,857 (22.8%)
In 2008, 47% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 14% of Republicans did.
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 88,881
AB returned: 35,185 (40%)
Democrats returned: 21,756 (61.8%)
Republicans returned: 13,429 (38.2%)
In 2012, 25% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a
percentage of the absentee ballots requested. Thus far, 15% of
Republicans have.
Lake County:
A 2008 analysis of Ohio presidential election results from 1960 to 2004 found that no other county more closely follows the statewide Ohio voting pattern. Lake County doesn't always vote with the winner, but consistently is closer to the winner's Ohio vote percentage than any other Ohio county.
“To do so, he’ll have to win over Lake County, which has been besieged by ads and campaign canvassers for months…”
2008 Lake County final vote (all) tally:
Obama: 60,155 – 49.58%
McCain: 59,142 – 48.74%
Differential: 0.84%
2008:
Absentee ballots requested: 51,266
AB returned: 17,618 (34.4%)
Democrats returned: 7,343 (41.7%)
Republicans returned: 10,275 (58.3%)
In 2008, 14% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 20% of Republicans did.
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 37,590
AB returned: 14,942
Democrats returned: 6,345 (42.5%)
Republicans returned: 8,597 (57.5%)
In 2012 so far, 17% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a
percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 23% of Republicans have.
McCain had a 16.6%-point lead over Obama in 2008. Today, Romney has a 15.0%-point lead over Obama.
Wood County:
Obama: 32,956 (52%)
2008:
Absentee ballots requested: 15,394 (61.7%)
2012:
In 2012 so far, 30% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 29% of Republicans have.
Obama had a 15.6%-point lead over McCain in 2008. Today, Obama has a 1.3%-point lead.
Tuscawaras County:
Obama: 20,957 (50%)
Absentee ballots requested: 12,501
2012:
In 2012 so far, 15% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 20% of Republicans have.
Obama had a 38.8%-point lead over McCain in 2008. Today, Romney has a 14.65%-point lead over Obama.
McCain had a 16.6%-point lead over Obama in 2008. Today, Romney has a 15.0%-point lead over Obama.
Wood County:
Wood has sided with the winner in every presidential election since 1992.
2008 Wood County final vote (all) tally:
Obama: 32,956 (52%)
McCain: 28,819 (46%)
Differential: 4,137
2008:
Absentee ballots requested: 15,394 (61.7%)
AB returned: 9,495
Democrats returned: 5,491 (57.8%)
Republicans returned: 4,004 (42.2%)
In 2008, 36% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 26% of Republicans did.
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 18,562
AB returned: 10,843 (58.42%)
Democrats returned: 5,492 (50.65%)
Republicans returned: 5,351 (49.35%)
In 2012 so far, 30% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 29% of Republicans have.
Obama had a 15.6%-point lead over McCain in 2008. Today, Obama has a 1.3%-point lead.
Tuscawaras County:
It, too, has gone with the winner in every presidential election since 1992.
2008 Tuscawaras County final vote (all) tally:
Obama: 20,957 (50%)
McCain: 19,940 (48%)
Differential: 1,017
2008:
Absentee ballots requested: 12,501
AB returned: 7,956 (63.6%)
Democrats returned: 5,521 (69.4%)
Republicans returned: 2,435 (30.6%)
In 2008, 42% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 14% of Republicans did.
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 14,441
AB returned: 4,926 (35.9%)
Democrats returned: 2,204 (44.75%)
Republicans returned: 2,926 (59.4%)
In 2012 so far, 15% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 20% of Republicans have.
Obama had a 38.8%-point lead over McCain in 2008. Today, Romney has a 14.65%-point lead over Obama.
Get out and get your friends, family, co-workers, neighbours, co-religionists, club members, etc, to vote! We can do this. Actually, we MUST do this. The future of your children and grandchildren depends upon it.
Some other counties:
Adams County (lasted updated 10.12):
2008:
Absentee ballots requested: 2950
AB returned: 2,164 (73.4%)
Democrats returned: 843 (38.95%)
Republicans returned: 1321 (61.05%)
In 2008, 38.95% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 61.05% of Republicans did.
In 2008, 38.95% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 61.05% of Republicans did.
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 1,757
AB returned: 1,224
Democrats returned: 410 (33.5%)
Republicans returned: 814 (66.5%)
In 2012 so far, 23% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 46% of Republicans have.
McCain had a 22.1%-point lead over McCain in 2008. Today, Romney has a 33.0%-point lead over Obama.
Allen County (last updated 10.22):
No 2008 Available
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 9,810
AB returned: 4,499
Democrats returned: 1,241 (27.58%)
Republicans returned: 3,258 (72.42%)
In 2012 so far, 13% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 33% of Republicans have.
Romney has a 44.84% lead.
Ashland County (last update 10.12):
No 2008 Available
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 4470
AB returned: 2995
Democrats returned: 1,049 (35.03%)
Republicans returned: 1946 (64.97%)
In 2012 so far, 13% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 33% of Republicans have.
Romney has a 29.94% lead.
Ashtabula County (updated 11.04):
2008 Ashtabula County final vote (all) tally:
Obama: 25,027 (55.77)
McCain: 18,949 (42.23%)
Differential: 6,078 |
2008:
Absentee ballots requested: 8953
AB returned: 3729
Democrats returned: 1789 (47.98%)
Republicans returned: 1940 (52.02%)
In 2008, 20% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 22% of Republicans did.
2012:
Absentee ballots requested: 11,234
AB returned: 5101
Democrats returned: 2,638 (51.7%)
Republicans returned: 2,463 (48.3%)
In 2012 so far, 23% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 22% of Republicans have.
McCain had a 4.04-point lead over Obama in 2008. Today, Obama has a 3.4%-point lead over Romney.
Butler County:
Absentee ballots requested: 23,638
AB returned: 8862
Democrats returned: 1979 (22.33%)
Republicans returned: 6883 (77.68%)
Romney has a 55.35% point lead.
Clark County (11.04):
Absentee ballots requested: 20,328
AB returned: 8588
Democrats returned: 3580 (41.69%)
Republicans returned: 5008 (58.31%)
Romney has a 16.62% point lead.
Clermont County (updated 10/24):
Absentee ballots requested: 23,469
AB returned: 8157
Democrats returned: 1073 (13.15%)
Republicans returned: 7084 (86.85%)
Romney has a 70.23% point lead.
Fairfield County:
Absentee ballots requested: 21,070
AB returned: 13459
Democrats returned: 5475 (40.7%)
Republicans returned: 7984 (59.3%)
Romney has a 18.6% point lead.
7 comments:
I've been following Hot Air comments and came across your blog. Was an Independent until about 12 years ago when I began voting GOP consistently... I'm missing the point of the Lake Co. absentee voting I think. Other than a lower turnout this year 36k requested vs 51k in '08, what else am I not seeing? The ratio of Dems to Rep's is almost identical to last election. Can you elaborate further?
I've been following Hot Air comments and came across your blog. Was an Independent until about 12 years ago when I began voting GOP consistently... I'm missing the point of the Lake Co. absentee voting I think. Other than a lower turnout this year 36k requested vs 51k in '08, what else am I not seeing? The ratio of Dems to Rep's is almost identical to last election. Can you elaborate further?
According to Dems, Obama must win Lake. It is true that Lake is a bellwether for Ohio. So, it will be interesting to keep an eye on it. That's why I included it. :-)
Yikes. Based on the 2012 absentee returns, the ratio of Dems to Reps is identical to 2008. That's worrisome.
Not sure what you guys are seeing! All I am seeing is, in nearly every county shown, more Republican voting and less democrat voting. Just look at the percentages to tell. Each county, the Republican's can gained a large margin in percentage voting while the democrats either stayed the same or dropped considerably.
Very good news coming from the early voting of Ohio. As this article states. McCain won the state on election day, but lost it due to the vast difference in early voting numbers. That difference is now almost completely gone. And that was for McCain! The Republican enthusiasm for Romney is vastly superior to McCain.
Joe, Your focusing on the wrong part. The return rates are sorta similar but the Dem counties have requested far fewer ballots to start with so even with similar return rates there are way less Dem votes in the bank than there was 4 years ago. Almost 54,000 fewer Dem votes and 13,000 more Rep Votes by my figuring. Here is a link to my math
Predictable...if you'd like to work together on keeping this updated, please let me know.
Forgot to actually include link
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0ByyHEWNcrSenR3FpR3JaSHRmYU0
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